They were buying homes in America over the last week.
I don’t know who “they” were. You’d have to ask them.
Wednesday’s MBA update indicated that home-buying activity in the US was the briskest in over two years early this month, when the association’s closely-watched purchase gauge rose 9% WoW on a seasonally-adjusted basis.
As the figure shows, that index now sits at its best levels since February of 2023.
I’d be inclined to call that a blip, which is to say my guess is that absent additional meaningful rates relief, whatever buying impulse there is will evaporate into the (deadly) summer heat.
You’ve heard me say it again and again, but it’s a sleepy Wednesday near peak vacation season, so I’ll be forgiven for recycling some familiar copy: The spring home-buying season in America was a bust. As Google’s AI summarizer put it after parsing countless hours of journalistic effort in the blink of an eye, “[T]he spring 2025 home-buying season was characterized by sluggish demand and a feeling of anxiety among potential buyers.”
Suffice to say demand’s still “sluggish.” And “potential buyers” are still anxious. But I suppose US housing’s in a place now where any news that isn’t bad news should be considered unequivocally good. “Home-buyer demand is being fueled by increasing housing inventory and moderating home-price growth,” MBA VP Joel Kan remarked, adding that the average loan size on a purchase app, at “just” $432,600, was the lowest since January in recent days.
The figure above’s just a zoomed version of the MBA’s 30-year fixed index. It slipped another few basis points this week to 6.77%.
That’s the lowest since early April (i.e., since “Liberation Day”), but we’re still stuck in a range between 6.50% and 7%. That’s too high when the typical home costs $430,000 and the median annual income is $78,000.
Redfin’s analysis team is talking a weeklong summer break, but according to their last update, new listings across the US fell 1% YoY in the four-week rolling period to June 29. It was the first decline in six months. Sellers, Dana Anderson said, are “taking notice of slow demand.”
