Jerome Powell’s press conference was a sleepy, uneventful affair on Wednesday.

Although tariff expectations have declined since the “Liberation Day” panic, trade frictions and tit-for-tat escalations are still likely “to push up prices and weigh on economic activity” this year, Powell said, after the Fed left rates on hold and marked up their core inflation projections.

It’s possible, Powell reiterated, that inflationary effects from tariffs prove persistent. The most important thing is keeping longer-term inflation expectations well anchored. Eventually, the Fed could find itself in an uncomfortable situation where its goals are “in tension,” but right now, policy’s well-positioned and the Committee’s in wait-and-see mode.

That was all more or less verbatim from talking points Powell’s used repeatedly over the past two or three months.

Colby Smith, now at The New York Times, got the first question. Have recent tariff de-escalations changed the Fed’s view of trade-war fallout, she wondered. Powell was keen to emphasize that the US just enjoyed three months of favorable inflation readings due in part to core services prices “grinding down.” Goods inflation, by contrast, is moving up “a bit,” and the Fed “expect[s] to see more of that.”

“It takes some time for tariffs to work their way through,” Powell said. Many companies “expect to [pass] some, or all, of the tariffs on to the next person in the chain and ultimately to the consumer.”

Howard Schneider from Reuters asked if the shallower 2026/2027 rate path in the new dot plot suggests the Fed believes tariff-related inflation might linger. Powell implored Schneider to focus on the nearer-term. “As you get out to the later years, it’s hard to know where the economy’s going to be going,” Powell said. “We’re adapting in real-time.”

Asked by Schneider to justify the new statement’s assertion that risks have diminished, Powell corrected him. The Fed didn’t say risks have receded, but rather uncertainty. “Uncertainty peaked in April. It’s come down,” he said. “I think that’s an accurate statement.”

A reporter from the AP suggested the Fed has an excuse to cut with inflation cooling despite the tariffs, cracks showing in the labor market and housing weak. Powell pushed back. “If you look at the overall picture, what you see is an economy that’s growing 1.5% or 2%, maybe a little better than that.” Consumer sentiment’s improved and all major indicators of the labor market are “at healthy levels,” he said.

Asked how many months of cool inflation the Fed would need to see in order to cut, Powell reminded the room that “no one” at the Fed “holds [their] rate paths with a great deal of conviction.” “You can make a case,” he remarked, “for any of the rate paths in the SEP.”

CNBC’s Steve Liesman pressed Powell on the same point: How many favorable inflation reports would it take for the Fed to get the confidence to start cutting again? “Very hard to say,” Powell responded. “As long as the economy’s solid, we feel like the right thing to do is to [stay] where we are and just learn more.”

Wall Street Journal “Fed whisperer” Nick Timiraos cited the divergence in the dot plot, where seven officials see no cuts this year, even as the median dot still reflects a pair of quarter-point reductions. “We have a pretty healthy diversity of views,” Powell told Nick, adding that the SEP and dots are “just a forecast in a very foggy time.” “People can look at the same data and evaluate the risks differently,” he went on, before repeating himself: “With uncertainty as high as it is, no one holds these rates paths with conviction.”

Bloomberg’s Michael McKee asked about Donald Trump. Someone had to. “Your friend down at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue continues to lob insults,” McKee said. “Is this just noise that markets should ignore or [do] you worry it could lead to more pressure on confidence?”

“Ok, from my standpoint it’s not complicated,” Powell replied. “What everyone on the FOMC wants is a good, solid American economy with a strong labor market and price stability. That is what matters to us. That’s pretty much all that matters.”

Asked by McKee if he’d stay on as a governor after his term as Chair ends, a visibly irritated Powell tapped on the lectern and said, “I’m not thinking about that, I’m thinking about this.”