While previewing this week’s slate of US macro releases, I suggested consumer confidence was likely to improve in the Conference Board survey for the simple reason that the mood among American households “can’t really get a lot worse.”

Recent readouts on the two marquee measures of US consumer sentiment were among the worst ever, leaving nowhere to go but up, particularly given that, notwithstanding episodic tantrums, Donald Trump’s trade stance softened in May.

Sure enough, the Conference Board headline improved dramatically in Tuesday’s release, printing 98 for May, more than 10ppt ahead of consensus.

As the figure shows, this was the first increase since November and the largest month-to-month jump since March of 2021, when Democrats were handing out free money and insisting it wouldn’t cause inflation. (I can make that joke because I’m a liberal. It’s therapeutic to laugh at yourself. You should all try it.)

It’s pretty funny that consumers are almost as excited about a delay in Trump’s tariffs as they are about stimulus checks. It also makes sense: If tariffs on China were going to cost the average family — whatever, call it $1,500 in a year, even though it’s probably a lot more than that — then the prospect that those tariffs won’t be implemented is good for the same confidence boost as a $1,500 check.

“The rebound was already visible before the May 12 US-China trade deal but gained momentum afterwards,” Stephanie Guichard, a senior economist at The Conference Board, said Tuesday. The cutoff date for the poll was May 19 and the release said that “about half” of the responses were collected after Trump and China announced the pause.

Recall that the expectations index in the survey plunged to one of its worst readings since the financial crisis in April, an abysmal 55.4. The improvement there was likewise dramatic: More than 17ppt, to 72.8.

80, you’re reminded, is the threshold on the expectations gauge beneath which a recession’s likely over the next 12 months. That rule of thumb hasn’t been especially useful post-pandemic, but it’s worth a mention.

If he’s paying attention (he’s not), Trump should read this as a cautionary tale: An all-out trade war with China isn’t something American households actually want. It sounds “good” at rallies, and maybe the MAGA faithful are willing to give it a go, but by and large, the idea of it scares the hell out of people.

I’d suggest Trump will be wary of re-escalating trade tensions with Beijing between now and August (when the 90-day grace period Xi granted Trump expires), but that’d be disingenuous. We all know that at some point between now and then, Trump’s going to declare the China tariffs “back on,” leading to another swoon in consumer sentiment, only to reverse himself the next month. Or, as was the case with the EU last week, the next day.