China’s export machine was supposed to slow in April, and it did. But not nearly as much as one might’ve anticipated under the circumstances.

Shipments abroad grew a little more than 8% YoY last month, Beijing said Friday. That was ~triple the 12-month growth rate economists anticipated.

That’s not to say Donald Trump’s tariffs, which were set at a cartoonish 145% mid-month, didn’t bite. China’s exports to the US plunged more than 20% versus the same month last year, while imports from America dove 14%, a reflection of Beijing’s 125% counter-tariffs.

The chart gives you some idea about how this is working out. What can I say? Congratulations to America? I’m not sure if this constitutes “winning,” frankly. But it certainly suggests tariffs can undermine bilateral trade.

A quick look at the breakdown shows China made up the difference by shipping more stuff locally. “Neighborhood” trade with Asia was booming in April. Specifically, China’s regional exports rose 21% last month. But it wasn’t just Asean. Shipments to Africa leapt 25%. Exports to Central and South America rose 17% and shipments to Europe more than 8%.

Imports slipped again, leaving a surplus of more than $96 billion, down from March but impressive all the same.

Some of this is still just front-loading. But a lot of what you’re seeing in the data is substitution and workarounds. China’s factories simply pivoted. They said: “Welp, the ‘direct-to-‘Merica’ trade’s out, so we’ll focus on shipping this cheap sh-t to somebody else, and trust them to ship it along.” Exports to Vietnam rose 23% last month, for example. Shipments to Thailand rose nearly 40%.

The figure above, from SocGen, tells the story by destination. Remember: Trump’s “reciprocal” tariffs on everyone except China are “paused” until early July.

Note that Vietnam’s dollar-denominated imports from China hit another record at $12 billion last month. They were $11.8 billion in March. That series maps very well onto Vietnam’s exports to the US, and that’s not a coincidence.

Trump’s back to playing Whac-a-Mole. He’s just using a bigger mallet this time (this term). Let me offer a fatalistic assessment: He’s not going to stop Chinese products, nor products made with Chinese inputs, from getting into the US. That’s mission impossible.

I’m not suggesting Trump can’t dent demand for Chinese goods. He can. But while Xi’s factories can be hobbled, they can’t be shuttered by foreign diktat. Trump’s approach to global affairs pretends the only countries on Earth with any agency are the US, China and Russia. That simply isn’t true. There will be appetite for China’s cheap goods, and Xi’s going to sate it.

The biggest problem for Xi may not be Trump but rather domestic demand. Even if exports prove resilient and China’s other trade partners chafe at America’s attempt to unilaterally dictate the terms of international commerce, Beijing still needs to revive consumer sentiment and spending at home. That’s a work in progress and as far as anyone can tell, the Party’s not making much of it — progress, I mean.

So, that’s the backdrop for this weekend’s trade talks between the US and China in Switzerland. Trump now claims it’s up to Scott Bessent, who’ll apparently be given some leeway to decide the appropriate course of action. It’s “Up to Scott B,” Trump said Friday.

That said, Trump has some ideas about what the “correct” level of tariffs on China should ultimately be. As he put it, “80% seems right!”