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‘Sell America’: The New Global Consensus
How quickly things change.
In January, "US exceptionalism" was the undisputed macro-market consensu
What you are saying is true, but I hope american exceptionalism will prevail and our stock investments will recover.
I’m certainly looking to increase my US holdings in future again after selling a lot in Feb. Even though we live in unprecedented times it’s hard to imagine Trump could end American exceptionalism. GFC didn’t. Anyone who has tried Deep Research should know the AI story is still there and I have yet to see international competitors offering something similar. Chatbots are useless but that thing is as good as an intern. Need to be mindful of the risk that this is a blip, something unexpected happens and US stocks recover and not miss the recovery. I’m a retail fool though, so probably a contrarian indicator (and currently significantly underweight US).
The number of “true believers” is most probably shrinking. Even my neighbor who knows nothing about what’s really going on out there knows she’s a lot more poor than she was two weeks ago and is now fearful. Half my neighbors are retirees. After the GFC it took almost 10 years for my daughter’s family to fully recover from the downdraft in their retirement savings. I don’t know how much is gone from my asset base. As of last Friday I was down about half the “market” loss. I don’t add to my stock holdings so I won’t be “buying the dip.” For the next three years that will generally be a bad trade since the morons who run this country’s finances have no concept of the consequences their planned actions will have. If we survive my guess is it will be at least 2050 before any recovery would be possible. Let’s face it there are no plausible leaders on the horizon in either party.
The H of 5 years ago would equivocate more, when reading the analyst chicken entrails. Or perhaps the entrails of the day leave no room for ambiguity. In any case, I was convinced by your rhetoric to rotate some 20% of my boring buy-and-hold IRA portfolio out of US and into international equities, starting in early January. I even threw in some shiny yellow doorstops for variety, replacing a small long-duration bond position.
Needless to say, one source of calm for me in the past weeks has been seeing the occasional flash of green among my positions and knowing that it could’ve been worse.