A Direct Question

10 thoughts on “A Direct Question”

1. Hat tip. It has to feel good that you correctly predict not only the crash, but also the level that prompted Trump to fold on the tarrifs.

2. Indeed, hat tip.

3. +1

4. I guess we go through this exercise at the next auction, and the next, and the next. Only without the catalyst of carotene caligula blinking

5. Any thoughts about whether the bid came from prior word of the cave in? I am clueless about how the auction works.

   1. I had the same thought. “Indirect” bidders scooping up the tens so soon before the announcement does smack of a leak or worse. Or it may just have been some fortuitous good luck for some shrewd speculators.

6. This thing just turned from a vicious bear steepener into a dramatic bear flattener on the tariff pause as markets price out Fed cuts. Hilarious.

7. Maybe some of the indirects were buying after having trade negotiation conversations?

   1. Dr Internet suggests: “Yes, indirect auction bidders can include hedge funds, as they often participate in Treasury auctions through intermediaries like primary dealers and brokers, rather than bidding directly.”

      For some reason, people like to assume indirect bidders are mostly foreign central banks. Not so.

      But if there was any insider dealing going on in the auction and pre-announcement, we can rest assured that the SEC and Treasury will investigate and identify the culprits.

8. “Now, was that smart? Was it shrewd? Was it good tactics? Or was it stupid?
   Don’t call me stupid.
   Oh, right! To call you stupid would be an insult to stupid people.”