Correction Arrives For US Stocks In $5 Trillion Rout

The S&P entered a correction on Thursday amid persistent trade war angst and, relatedly, the perception among traders and investors that the Trump administration’s pot-committed to tariffs and insufficiently attentive to market feedback.

To be clear, American presidents shouldn’t make trade policy (or any other policy) based on the petulant behavior of equities, which are famously spoiled. But neither should presidents completely ignore the verdict from stocks when that verdict’s swift, unanimous and the policy on trial has some connection to the economy.

As discussed here on Thursday, the Trump administration does have a nefarious domestic socioeconomic plan, but that doesn’t mean there’s a plan for the trade war and tariff “strategy” looks more slapdash by the day. Maybe someone warned Trump early on that equities could wobble as tariffs go into effect, but I doubt seriously that Trump wanted or expected a 10% stock drop during his first two months in office.

The simple figure makes a simple point: The rapidity of the decline’s pretty notable, even if it’s hardly indicative of a panic.

Thursday’s headlines weren’t auspicious. Trump threatened to hit French wine with a 200% tariff and called the EU “nasty,” Scott Bessent said he’s not worried about “a little” market volatility and later, speaking to reporters during a meeting with NATO chief Mark Rutte, Trump emphasized that when it comes to “reciprocal” tariffs set to kick in next month, he’s “not going to bend at all.”

On several occasions throughout the day, Trump reiterated his standard talking point: America’s “been ripped off for years,” and by the grace of God — who saved Trump’s life in July so that he might restore the US to greatness, according to the gospel — “we’re not going to be ripped off anymore.”

In the meantime — i.e., from now until whenever “we’re not being ripped off anymore” — equities and risk assets more generally will have to grapple with an around-the-clock soap opera which is prompting strategists to rethink their year-end 2025 S&P targets.

Note that the bull share in the AAII weekly individual investor survey slipped to 19.1% this week, the lowest since September of 2022, during the height of the Fed’s hiking campaign.

The color accompanying the survey noted that “this is the first time that bullish sentiment has been below 20% for three straight weeks.”

So far, Trump’s “golden age” has erased more than $5 trillion from the market value of corporate America.

And to think: He’s just getting started.


 

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4 thoughts on “Correction Arrives For US Stocks In $5 Trillion Rout

  1. H-Man, it may be difficult (more likely impossible) for POTUS to get the genie back in the bottle. And this genie is going to raise hell with the economy. This may just be the beginning.

  2. Multiple expansion which occurred during last run up…(WMT trading at > 40) is mean reverting. And it was WMT last earnings announcement which started this angst in stocks by signaling that consumer might be tapped out. Trump Pump turned into Trump Dump.

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