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JPMorgan’s Doing Fine, If You Were Wondering
Remember: Volatility's a boon if your business (or one of your businesses) is facilitating trades.
Speaking of a fool’s errand, how can anyone accurately predict trading revenue? Unless they have an internal source of information …
Prediction = Guess
There will be quarterly data reported fairly soon and banks report funds flows quarterly as well. Some clues might start to show.
Those NII numbers always blow me away. “And here’s how much money we make just by having money. It’s just under a tenth of a trillion dollars a year. Thank you, drive through.”
Yeah, maybe I’m still missing something, but with interest rates at 5%, are we really taming inflation? I’m not terribly bright, but if I’m reading my FRED charts correctly, the US government is paying out over a trillion dollars of interest every quarter which is about $500B more per quarter than the interest paid during and prior to the pandemic. Isn’t that basically $2T of stimulus per year?
Anyone have any data on how much additional interest expense are corporate and individual borrowers paying as a result of higher rates? The only way I see out of this is either crashing the economy (certainly a possibility when Republicans are in charge) or raising taxes (never going to happen).
The economy will crash, regardless of which party is in charge. It it not reasonable to think anything else will deflate the massive bubble that’s been blown. Leveraged leverage. Makes the fractional reserves scheme seem tame. It will pop as sure as it was blown. And it will be sudden. And there will layoffs and closures. And housing will follow suit. And then one day there will be green shoots. Kind of like how a forest fire ravages the land. Who knows when though?