US Home Price Gains Continue, But At Slower Rate

US home values continued to rise in October, data released on Tuesday showed.

Prices rose 4.2% that month from the same period a year ago, according to the nation’s marquee price gauge, the Case-Shiller 20-city index.

That was a slower 12-month pace than that observed in September, when prices posted a 4.6% annual gain. The broader, national gauge, rose 3.6% on a 12-month basis in October, likewise slower than the prior month’s annual rate.

Note from the figure that annual price growth has decelerated for seven straight months.

Among the top 20 cities, New York showed the largest annual gain. Chicago and Vegas were next, with annual increases on the order of 6%. On a MoM, seasonally-adjusted basis, the national and 20-city gauges posted 0.3% increases. For what it’s worth (as usual, nothing), economists expected 0.2% on the MoM prints and 4.1% from the YoY readout on the 20-city measure.

Brian Luke, S&P’s Head of Commodities, Real & Digital Assets (and serial “logger” of ski resorts) sounded pleased. “Our National Index hit its 17th consecutive all-time high, and only two markets — Tampa and Cleveland — fell during the past month,” he said on New Year’s Eve. “Removing the political uncertainly risk has led to an equity market rally; it will be telling should the similar sentiment occur among homeowners,” he added.

Meanwhile, FHFA’s gauge rose 0.4% MoM for October, in line with estimates and 4.5% YoY. “Annual house price gains have been trending down since February, stabilizing around 4.5% during the last three months,” Anju Vajja, Deputy Director for FHFA’s research division said. “Even with elevated house prices and mortgage rates putting continued pressure on affordability, house prices continued to grow at a steady rate, likely due to a historically low inventory of homes for sale.”

Remember: Disinflation isn’t the same thing as deflation. Just ask a family struggling to pay for groceries.


 

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