The US economy kicked off Q4 growing at a 2.5% clip.

That was the implication from the first look at S&P Global’s PMIs for October.

The flash print on the services gauge was 55.3, an uptick from September and marginally better than consensus expected. The manufacturing index remained in contraction territory, but at 47.8, the gauge still managed to rise and top estimates.

The accompanying color described “a robust start to the fourth quarter,” even as hiring was hindered by election uncertainty.

You might recall (I don’t know why I just wrote that, nobody’s going to “recall” this because no one cares about these PMIs, let alone any of the subindexes) that businesses’ outlook turned dour last month, when optimism sank to a two-year. That metric recovered smartly in October, jumping to a 29-month high. “The shift in sentiment underscores the unusual volatility of the current business and political environment,” the release noted, explaining the inexplicable.

If you’re a glass half-empty type (and I generally am, just not necessarily in the macro-market context, where I try to stay as neutral as possible), you’ll argue that the economy’s bifurcated and that invariably, the services sector will slow as “long and variable lags” from elevated rates finally undercut consumer spending. I buy it. But then again, I don’t. Because a lot Americans simply aren’t impacted by higher rates: Mortgages comprise the vast majority of household debt and those are fixed-rate forever loans. That setup is impairing the transmission of monetary policy, for better or worse.

Commenting on this month’s preliminary data, S&P Global’s Chris Williamson thanked the services sector for strong demand as evidenced by the best read on new orders in “nearly one-and-a-half years.”

The survey also indicated that price pressures, which were percolating, receded at the margins (no pun intended). “Sales are being stimulated in part by more competitive pricing, which has in turn helped drive selling price inflation for goods and services down to the lowest since the initial pandemic slump in early 2020,” Williamson went on. “These weaker price pressures are consistent with inflation running below the Fed’s 2% target.”

I’ll recycle what, by now, is an admittedly tired joke: Can you feel the savings?!