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Gamblers Gonna Gamble
You gotta love it. Following last week's US CPI report, all-knowing, efficient markets were convinced a 50bps September rate cut from the Fed was off the table. I was likewise convinced, despite my conviction in the merits of a half-point first move. Betting odds had 50bps priced at just ¢8.
Fast forward to Monday, and traders added to the rate-cut wagers built on the heels of Nick Timiraos's September 12 trial balloon which, you'll recall, revived the debate. As of this writing, Wednesday's F
This is purely anecdotal, but Seeking Alpha’s Monday AM poll question on the 16th was, 25 or 50? When I voted 25 the results up to that point were running 79% for 25 and 21% for 50 at ~10AM CDT.
Yeah, I’m not sure that’s what you wanna go on.