Join institutional investors, analysts and strategists from the world's largest banks: Subscribe today for as little as $7/month
Already have an account? log in
Reflexivity And Risky Ventures
Market participants don't fully appreciate the Fed's reflexivity "problem."
I put problem in scare quotes because it's only an annoyance for the Fed if they too don't fully appreciate it, and by now I think they mostly get the joke. And also that it -- the joke -- is on them.
Plainly, Nick Timiraos wasn't just musing idly when he suggested, on Thursday afternoon, that market pricing for next week's FOMC meeting had by then gone too far in fading a possible 50bps first cut. Neither was it a coi
So what chance, 50 is the number get ‘ebullient” response re-igniting aforementioned to the point subsequent consideration need be given to increase (attendant angst). Reasonable landscape constituent?
I agree, I also think FOMC wants to stay out of the political fray. Not so much that they will hesitate to do their jobs, which they take seriously, but if there’s a way to do it w/ less controversy, why not chose discretion over valor?
How about a steady 25 points (Sept, October, November, December). I could care less whether they meet in Oct or not. That would give us 100 point by the end of the year.