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About That Recession…
I suppose this goes without saying, but just in case: You're not going to be able to get a "clean" read on the state of risk appetite or the market zeitgeist more generally for a little while longer yet.
The price action following VaR shocks like the one seen across August 2-August 5 tends to be very erratic, characterized by outsized intraday swings and outwardly inexplicable reversals.
I don't want to say it's best to just ignore it all for a while but... well, there it is. I just said it.
Part of me would enjoy Powell going into the Sept. meeting and cutting 75, just to watch Trump lose his Sh!t. The problem is that would cause a lot of other people to lose theirs as well. The sell the cut crowd and everyone reacting like the recession is here, might create a higher probability of a near octogenarian short on time grifter from returning to 1600 Pennsylvania Ave.
And in his impromptu presser yesterday Maga boi announced he is smarter than Powell or any of the FOMC members. Apparently, Trump’s gut sees all and knows all, to hear him tell it least. Right up there with one of his favorite dictators, Recep himself.