‘Cool Heads’ And Adrenaline Junkies

The adrenaline junkies among you are having a grand ole time.

Hot on the heels of what we may as well call their worst day in history, Japanese equities rebounded to post absurd gains. A hypothetical knife-catcher at the lows on Monday would’ve been able to sell on Tuesday for a double-digit return.

As the simple (and ridiculous) figure below shows, the  Nikkei jumped more than 10% following Monday’s 12% collapse.

How’s that for “turnaround Tuesday”? The yen took a breather, which is to say USDJPY stopped falling. For now.

The Japanese government obviously noticed the stock market’s Nagasaki moment on Monday. (Too soon?) Officials, including those at the Bank of Japan (who investors this week blamed for spoiling a perfectly good global melt-up), said they’re keeping an eye on things. “Urgently.” They’re urgently monitoring developments.

Pressing though the circumstances surely are, it’s crucial for officials to remain “cool-headed,” Atsushi Mimura, who replaced Masato Kanda in June, enjoined.

Stocks are anything but “cool-headed.” Note that the rolling five-day average move on the Nikkei is now in excess of 600bps.

On that simple metric, local shares are more volatile than they were at the height of the COVID panic in March of 2020.

As a couple of mainstream outlets remarked, the rebound on Tuesday did make sense in the context of the relatively contained losses seen across other global benchmarks on Monday. To be sure, Monday was a very (very) bad day no matter where you were — MSCI’s All-Country gauge fell more than 3%, for example — but nothing like the outright collapse seen in Japan. In that context, local dip-buyers might’ve assessed that the wipeout was overdone.

Still, these swings are the furthest thing from healthy. JGBs are exhibiting extraordinary volatility too. A day on from plunging in the chaos around the stock rout, 10-year yields rose 14bps following the worst auction result in 22 years. That’s a huge move for JGBs.

Fumio Kishida weighed in on Tuesday. “It’s important to make calm judgments in a situation like this,” he said. He was speaking to reporters from Hiroshima on the 79th anniversary of… well, you know.


 

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