US Inflation Update In Focus As Stocks Gun For More Records
It'll be a fairly busy week on the US macro front. An update on the Fed's preferred price gauge is the marquee release.
We already know US inflation was tame in May. Or at least according to government statistics, which is to say according to the last CPI and PPI releases.
Expectations for the PCE prints are accordingly benign. Economists expect an unchanged headline and a 0.1% MoM advance for the core gauge.
Consensus readings would mark a return to the pace observed late last year, when F
I love that Core PCE projection chart. It is a model for every time series chart in our economy. Actually, there should be an infinite number of little forecast projections sticking out, each of which derives from its own individual superimposed distribution across its back. This model represents the basis for forecasts arising from Monte Carlo simulations. This technique is rarely used because no one really knows anything and Monte Carlo is mind-blowing to most, especially the terminally lazy.
The debate is a mistake!
Debate definition: a formal discussion on a particular topic in a public meeting or legislative assembly, in which opposing arguments are put forward.
Professional wrestling: Professional wrestling is a form of athletic theater that combines mock combat with drama, under the premise that the performers are competitive wrestlers.
We will be watching 10 second clips from the “debate” for the rest of the year.
That debate will be the like the olympics for mental stimulation drugs. A train wreck indeed.
Well, the Stock Market of One Does. Not. Care. No wild guesses allowed here.
Note ocean shipping rates are rising fast – not to 2022 levels but doubling in a year. Red Sea, Panama Canal, port congestion, upcoming busy season, shippers’ revenge. A small inflationary factor in 2H24, perhaps.