Jerome Powell was composed on Wednesday during what, at times, felt like a somnolent back and forth with reporters. All things considered, he did ok.

There was a lot to parse in the new SEP. The Fed tipped just one rate cut for 2024, but four for 2025. The long run dot shifted up, again, reflecting a higher neutral rate. And officials marked up their inflation projections to suggest very little, if any, progress versus current levels.

In light of all that, and in the wake of a CPI report which arguably counted as the most favorable release the Fed’s seen in years, there was a lot to discuss and debate. It could’ve been lively. Instead it was sleepy.

The Fed, Powell said, still needs more confidence to consider rate cuts despite consecutive benign CPI prints. It’s about the totality of the data, not any one series or release. He declined to say whether anyone changed their SEP forecasts based on Wednesday’s data. Officials “were able to consider whether they should make changes,” he told Wall Street Journal “Fed whisperer” Nick Timiraos. “Some people do [but] most people generally don’t.”

Asked if the Fed wants to see more cooling in the labor market, Powell delivered a semi-coherent word salad, which is to say a word salad that was as coherent as word salads can be. The US labor market was overheated two years ago, and even one year ago, but it’s gradually moving back into better balance. He mentioned immigration. There’s no evidence yet to suggest that whatever softening is observable might presage “something more serious.”

He cited (indirectly) CPI overshoots for January, February and March in explaining what prompted officials to project a shallower rate path for 2024. It’s “probably going to take longer to get the confidence to loosen policy,” he said, before quickly adding that all this really means is that “rate cuts [which] might’ve taken place this year take place next year.” He pointed to the additional rate cut penciled in for 2025 versus the old SEP, noting that if you look to the out-years, “you’re almost exactly where you would’ve been.” And in any case, the data could always dictate a more dovish cadence. Indeed, there was “different data today,” Powell chirped. The Fed has to “let the data light the way.”

Jeanna Smialek, from The New York Times, asked if the upward shift in the long run dot means current policy wasn’t as restrictive as the Fed previously believed. The answer’s “yes.” Mechanically, the answer has to be “yes.” But Powell’s been extremely reluctant to concede that the neutral rate discussion’s relevant for the policy debate. Neutral, he said Wednesday, is a “theoretical concept.” “I don’t think [it] get[s] you where you need to be to think about policy in the near-term,” he added. “People are coming to view that rates are less likely to go down to their pre-pandemic levels,” he told Smialek, before reiterating that policy’s restrictive. The jury’s still out on whether it’s “sufficiently restrictive,” but there was no suggestion on Wednesday that Powell’s considering another hike.

Reuters and, later, Bloomberg’s Michael McKee, pointed to this year’s growth, unemployment and PCE price forecasts from the new SEP in noting that the Fed’s projection for even one rate cut is somewhat hard to square with above-tend growth, below-NAIRU unemployment and above-target inflation. Powell didn’t take the bait, as such. Instead, he emphasized that in the Committee’s view, rates are high enough currently that if maintained for long enough, everything should work itself out. Eventually, “you’ll see” the impact, he said, reminding the room that the Fed’s already made good progress on inflation. “Ultimately, we think rates will have to come down” to continue to support the labor market and growth, he continued, although “so far, they haven’t.”

Later, Powell said wage pressures are still running above what might generally be considered a “sustainable” pace. That’ll have to resolve. Over time, wage growth will need to be “somewhat below” current levels “in aggregate.” He didn’t dwell on the point.

Asked by WaPo‘s Rachel Siegel if one cut actually means anything, Powell admitted it doesn’t. Or wouldn’t. “If you look back in 25 years and try to pull out the impact of one [rate] cut on the economy, you’d have a pretty tough job on your hands,” he said.

A reporter from CBS was as blunt as she was eloquent. What, she asked Powell, is the Fed’s message to Americans who’re seeing good data but don’t feel good about the economy? “I don’t think anyone knows why people aren’t as happy about the economy as they might be,” Powell told her. “All I can tell you is what the data shows.”

The same reporter pressed him on a timeline. “About when can consumers expect some relief [on rates]?” she asked. “I don’t have an exact date for you,” Powell said.