Rally Interrupted And The Forever Inversion

A four-week global equity rally faltered this week amid concerns around delayed Fed cuts. MSCI's gauge was on track for its first weekly loss in five. It was no coincidence that the dollar was poised for its best stretch in nearly two months (admittedly not a big move, though). US twos were 4.73% on May 15. They were 4.92% headed into Friday's session. Based on that alone you could've guessed equities were off the highs. Chris Waller was due to speak about the neutral rate in Reykjavík Fri

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5 thoughts on “Rally Interrupted And The Forever Inversion

  1. Taxes, taxes, taxes. Use taxes to normalize the situation… But who am I kidding? No politicians want to be associated with raising taxes…

    1. Great idea… let’s print money, spend like crazy, borrow from ourselves, and then tax those dollars so they come back home to roost.
      America has it all figured out.

      1. Well, if we knew exactly to the dollar how much support the economy needed during COVID, sure, we could have avoided overreacting.

        We didn’t know, we had the post GFC under-response by Obama as an example of what not to do, so we overdid it. Some economists did say it was too much at the time. But then they had been wrong about other things before so…

        The fact that monetary hiking is also turning out significantly less effective than usual is… unusual. It can be explained but I certainly didn’t see it coming. And, well, CRE, possibly regional banks, aren’t haven’t a good time… so it’s still possible we hiked “till things break”.

        So, unless your macro trading proves you haven’t had a wrong call in the past 25 years, I’m unlikely to be convinced. But we can/we could, in theory, fix what ails us.

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