Imagine a world where Fed officials were required to say something new, or at least something incrementally informative, whenever they spoke publicly.
In fact, imagine a world where that rule applied to everyone. A world where the right to opine (on anything) was contingent upon saying something meaningful.
That’d be a quiet world. And silence is most assuredly golden in this context.
Every day, I’m reminded of how little we actually have to offer one another. If someone’s talking, odds are they aren’t saying anything worth saying.
Jerome Powell did a lot of talking on Tuesday. Guess what? Nothing. An hour’s worth of repetitious nothing masquerading as something. Here’s the short version:
The US economy’s performing well. Households are in good shape. Many industries are still experiencing worker shortages. But there are some signs of gradual cooling in the labor market. The Fed made progress on inflation last year. But that progress appeared to stall in Q1. The FOMC needs to be patient before cutting rates. Inflation may start to move down again fairly soon. The Fed’s level of confidence in the disinflation trajectory is lower now than it was a few months ago. It’s too soon to know whether inflation will make it the rest of the way down to target without additional coaxing. Services inflation is especially stubborn, but it doesn’t necessarily have to recede all the way to 2% in order for broader inflation to be mandate-consistent. By many measures, policy’s restrictive. The Fed’s next move isn’t likely to be another rate hike. Housing inflation’s persistent and that’s vexing. The “long and variable lags” are longer this time. The US economy’s benefiting from higher immigration. Trade policy’s not the purview of the Fed. The banking system’s strong. A lot of people, Powell included, think the deficit’s too big and that America’s fiscal trajectory isn’t sustainable.
Powell flew all the way to Amsterdam to say that. How much is that costing American taxpayers? Maybe nothing. Maybe the Foreign Bankers’ Association (which hosted the event) is picking up the tab. But if there’s any cost to Americans, it’s too high. The cost to me was an hour wasted listening to the same two-dozen talking points.
To be fair, there were a couple of soundbites that met a loose definition of “notable.” Powell downplayed Tuesday’s PPI overshoot, for example, calling it “mixed.” I assume that means he’s seen Wednesday’s CPI report (otherwise he’s rolling the dice).
He also went out of his way to emphasize that monetary policy’s weighing on activity, including credit provision and spending. Evidence for such claims is wanting, at best.
Powell reiterated his contention that the neutral rate’s not especially relevant for near-term policy settings, an assertion I continue to believe counts as maddeningly circular (more on that here).
Finally, Powell said the Fed has the power it needs to protect its independence, and that the institution enjoys very strong support in that regard on Capitol Hill. The first part of that’s just a lie. The Fed has no such power. If an autocrat comes along and succeeds in commandeering the legislature, there’s absolutely nothing the Fed could do to protect its independence.
The second part’s mostly true. For now. Most US lawmakers do understand the utility of maintaining a nominally independent central bank. But then again, one party in America’s political duopoly increasingly views democracy itself as expendable, or even undesirable. If the country continues to move in the direction of allowing a minority of the GOP to make decisions for a majority of Americans, nobody should be surprised if the Fed ends up having to “consult” the executive before making policy decisions.
Ultimately, Powell didn’t say anything new, nor anything that counted as incrementally informative, on Tuesday.
Imagine a better, quieter world.


As I keep reminding those around me, there is nothing you can do about the current situation. “Situation” can encompass any and all contexts at this point, it’s the shift in culture that is driving the lunacy all around us. The best thing to do is nothing, wait for something to change and then you can act. We’re all waiting….
I am going to shoot from the hip. This comment goes no where to the point of this article . As an emotional reader I request…
That YOU NEVER STOP TALKING
…nominally independent central bank.
The Fed seems to value never surprising the market, such that every action shall be telegraphed long in advance and every possible action will have been previewed somewhere in the welter of Fedspreak and thus at least present in investors’ probability distribution.
I suppose the consequences of the Fed blindsiding the market are greater than, say, the Swiss central bank doing so. But it does make for a poor signal-to-noise ratio.
What makes no sense in this context is the lack of using the QT lever and why they are already ramping that down. That would seem to be the easiest mechanism available to try to tighten financial conditions (ramp it up) to counteract fiscal impulse because rate jawboning isn’t working at this point.
“You start a conversation, you can’t even finish it
You’re talking a lot, but you’re not saying anything
When I have nothing to say, my lips are sealed
Say something once, why say it again?”
(meant to reply to the thread in general, not specifically Soutomaxwell)