Yes Or No Questions

How worried should investors (and the world) be about post-election volatility and societal upheaval in the US? I addressed that question a few days ago in "An Early Word On US Election Tail Risks." I'm sure I'll revisit it on dozens of occasions between now and November. Consider this one such occasion. I don't think a lot of Americans understand how democracy works anymore, so let me offer a quick reminder: If you aren't resigned, genuinely and completely, to the idea that you could lose an

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11 thoughts on “Yes Or No Questions

  1. I wonder how uncomfortable it might get for recent northeast transplants in rural parts of the South.

    The story in today’s WSJ about West Virginia’s labor shortage is worth a few moments of your time.

    But after that waste of time, we can refocus on the important stuff, in order of importance: wghere’s one month vol heading? And will the dot plots change?

    1. The link to the WSJ story. After reading this it is clear that “It’s the economy, stupid!” no longer applies. So the earnest folks who say that Biden & company just have to “explain” how well the economy is actually doing are wasting their time. The GOP base is driven by “it’s not your fault your life sucks” and good old-fashioned racism.

  2. Investors be damned. Anyone remaining with a semblance of a working brain should shutter at the thought of an Idiocracy-inspired, Trump situation room. Now is not the time for an already declining, global hegemon to implode.

    Small world, small minds, big toys. What a scream

  3. The world should be very worried, but perhaps most investors will initially celebrate a Trump victory, my guess is the market reacts in a positive way and things might continue nicely (as it pertains markets) as Trump forces rate cuts and tax cuts, but inevitably volatility and unrest will rise, I just don’t expect it will be right after the election unless Trump loses, which looks less likely each day.

  4. Sadly, all of this is perfectly understandable. Read “Snakes in Suits” by Robert Hare, and “The Authoritarians” by Altemeyer and you can see history in an entirely different light. The sociopath and their authoritarian followers have indelibly marked humanity’s blood-soaked history.

  5. I’m worried about the “conservatives”, Bill Barr comes quickly to mind, that don’t have the stones to say “Trump is such a threat to our country’s future that I intend to vote for Joe Biden.” Minority rule is already here…thanks to the Senate, Electoral College, state legislators and evil machinations of the Federalist Society. We’ve got a fight on our hands…

  6. The key to understanding the potential future is to understand what happened to Hitler’s, Stalin’s or any other dictator’s supporters. Stalin murdered one by one for may years to consolidate and maintain power. Hitler, crushed his erstwhile brown shirt supporters. If you think that Donnie is any different? Just look at Rudy Guilianni’s efforts and fate. He can defend Donnie all he can and still he gets no help from Donnie or supporters. Early supporters of a dictator are often victims of state murder. Having money is not a protection, money becomes a target of a dictator that owns everything. You think that lying low and not expressing opinions confers protection? Ever heard the statement, ‘if you are not with me, you are against me’ ? Enemies are as valuable as gold to a dictator, more must be manufactured once the original stock has been murdered. Why do you think Nalvany survived so long? Putin needed an impotent foil.

    Therefore I think one thing that is likely to tank the stock and bond markets is a Trump ascendency. In fact I view any market stability as verification that Lichtman’s metrics are still working in this cycle and the former President will become The Twice Over Former President.

  7. Someone Tim Scott trusted advised him that if he goes down this road, then it’ll pay off in 2028. It’s a tragedy that Mr. Scott listened to that someone. The inability to “know thyself” here. The path he’s choosing requires him to lie on camera every day, and he just doesn’t have it in him, it would seem. Probably because he’s a good man, deep down. I feel really bad for him with this clip. The display of cognitive dissonance in the middle an obvious moral/ethical conundrum, on camera.

    1. The “good man, deep down” also appears to have initiated into Trump’s Loyalty Through Humiliation Club which seems to be teeming with similar people with “issues” of some kind or other, whether criminal, sexual or financial in basis. See also: Devin Nunes, Bill Barr, Rudy Guiliani, Lindsay Graham, Marjorie Taylor Greene, Ronny Jackson, Sarah Huckabee, Brett Kavanaugh, Matt Gaetz, Greg Abbot, Ted Cruz, Ginni Thomas, Paul Manafort, Roger Stone, Steve Bannon, Jim Jordan and all the rest who’ve put their own personal or political survival over the country’s. But all patriotic God-fearing law and order Christians, if I’m not mistaken. At least that’s their personas. For now, I’m hoping Tim Scott’s fake fiancee sues him for non-payment.

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