How worried should investors (and the world) be about post-election volatility and societal upheaval in the US?
I addressed that question a few days ago in “An Early Word On US Election Tail Risks.” I’m sure I’ll revisit it on dozens of occasions between now and November. Consider this one such occasion.
I don’t think a lot of Americans understand how democracy works anymore, so let me offer a quick reminder: If you aren’t resigned, genuinely and completely, to the idea that you could lose an election, then you aren’t a democrat, with a small “d.” You don’t believe in, or are apathetic about, democracy.
There are no caveats allowed. If the question is whether you, as a candidate for elected office, would concede in the event things don’t go your way on election day, the answer has to be — must be — an unqualified “yes.”
In fact, a real democrat (again with a small “d”) never gets that question. If you’re a politician in a democracy and an interviewer asks whether you’d concede a lost election, some soul-searching’s in order. Because apparently, something’s gone terribly wrong.
Cue Trump vice presidential hopeful Tim Scott, an African American who, if he had any shame, would defect from a party engaged in a sweeping effort to disenfranchise everyone who looks him.
“But senator, will you commit to accepting the election results? Bottom line,” an adamant Kristen Welker pressed, during a recent interview which a reader brought to my attention on Thursday. Here’s the clip:
In addition to being painfully (and comically) awkward, that’s terrifying.
Asked directly if he’d accept the results, Scott stuttered, then offered this: “At the end of the day, the 47th president of the United States will be President Donald Trump.”
What, exactly, does “at the end of the day” mean in that context? I don’t know. Scott would probably say it’s conceptually akin to “when it’s all said and done,” but that just raises the same question: When what‘s all said and done, exactly? Because the vote’s just the vote. There’s a winner and there’s a loser. If you’re not willing to be the loser, guess what? You can’t run. Not in a democracy. That’s not how democracy works.
The rest of the exchange between Welker and Scott was nothing short of surreal. After Welker’s third attempt to get a yes or no from Scott, he said, “Kristen you can ask it multiple times, but…” But what, senator? But you’re unwilling to commit to the democratic process? Because that’s what it sounds like.
I’m not the first person to point this out since Scott’s interview, but his exchange with Welker played like “Exhibit A” in the context of the warning signs enumerated by Harvard’s Steven Levitsky and Daniel Ziblatt in their new volume Tyranny Of The Minority.
If you’re unfamiliar, Levitsky and Ziblatt penned How Democracies Die in 2018, a book which looked frighteningly prescient on January 6, 2021. In Tyranny, Levitsky and Ziblatt identify “three basic things” that politicians committed to democracy must do. The first is “respect the outcome of free and fair elections, win or lose.” “This means consistently and unhesitatingly accepting defeat,” they write.
Trump’s strategy for circumventing that potential obstacle is mind-bogglingly straightforward: He’ll loudly declare a willingness to concede a free and fair election, then he’ll turn around and declare every election he loses fraudulent, which is to say not free and not fair.
Plainly, that’s absurd. Like saying, “I’ll concede every footrace I lose except for the unfair ones and they’re all unfair.” But a third (and maybe more) of the US electorate doesn’t understand why that logic’s so absurd. That’s even more terrifying than Trump’s autocratic inclinations.
Ultimately, Scott resorted to obfuscatory slander in the interview with Welker. “This is why so many Americans believe that NBC is an extension of the Democratic party,” he sneered. “I believe that President Trump will be our next president. It’s that simple.”
So, coming full circle, how worried should investors (and the world) be? Worried.
I wonder how uncomfortable it might get for recent northeast transplants in rural parts of the South.
The story in today’s WSJ about West Virginia’s labor shortage is worth a few moments of your time.
But after that waste of time, we can refocus on the important stuff, in order of importance: wghere’s one month vol heading? And will the dot plots change?
The link to the WSJ story. After reading this it is clear that “It’s the economy, stupid!” no longer applies. So the earnest folks who say that Biden & company just have to “explain” how well the economy is actually doing are wasting their time. The GOP base is driven by “it’s not your fault your life sucks” and good old-fashioned racism.
https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/west-virginia-workers-migrants-jobs-0be74c9f?st=tdu9idtosfqy6tv&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink
Investors be damned. Anyone remaining with a semblance of a working brain should shutter at the thought of an Idiocracy-inspired, Trump situation room. Now is not the time for an already declining, global hegemon to implode.
Small world, small minds, big toys. What a scream
The world should be very worried, but perhaps most investors will initially celebrate a Trump victory, my guess is the market reacts in a positive way and things might continue nicely (as it pertains markets) as Trump forces rate cuts and tax cuts, but inevitably volatility and unrest will rise, I just don’t expect it will be right after the election unless Trump loses, which looks less likely each day.
Sadly, all of this is perfectly understandable. Read “Snakes in Suits” by Robert Hare, and “The Authoritarians” by Altemeyer and you can see history in an entirely different light. The sociopath and their authoritarian followers have indelibly marked humanity’s blood-soaked history.
I’m worried about the “conservatives”, Bill Barr comes quickly to mind, that don’t have the stones to say “Trump is such a threat to our country’s future that I intend to vote for Joe Biden.” Minority rule is already here…thanks to the Senate, Electoral College, state legislators and evil machinations of the Federalist Society. We’ve got a fight on our hands…
The key to understanding the potential future is to understand what happened to Hitler’s, Stalin’s or any other dictator’s supporters. Stalin murdered one by one for may years to consolidate and maintain power. Hitler, crushed his erstwhile brown shirt supporters. If you think that Donnie is any different? Just look at Rudy Guilianni’s efforts and fate. He can defend Donnie all he can and still he gets no help from Donnie or supporters. Early supporters of a dictator are often victims of state murder. Having money is not a protection, money becomes a target of a dictator that owns everything. You think that lying low and not expressing opinions confers protection? Ever heard the statement, ‘if you are not with me, you are against me’ ? Enemies are as valuable as gold to a dictator, more must be manufactured once the original stock has been murdered. Why do you think Nalvany survived so long? Putin needed an impotent foil.
Therefore I think one thing that is likely to tank the stock and bond markets is a Trump ascendency. In fact I view any market stability as verification that Lichtman’s metrics are still working in this cycle and the former President will become The Twice Over Former President.
Sounds like someone needs to get to work on another rise and fall book, this one being the American empire.
Well said ! This is the twilight zone.
Someone Tim Scott trusted advised him that if he goes down this road, then it’ll pay off in 2028. It’s a tragedy that Mr. Scott listened to that someone. The inability to “know thyself” here. The path he’s choosing requires him to lie on camera every day, and he just doesn’t have it in him, it would seem. Probably because he’s a good man, deep down. I feel really bad for him with this clip. The display of cognitive dissonance in the middle an obvious moral/ethical conundrum, on camera.
The “good man, deep down” also appears to have initiated into Trump’s Loyalty Through Humiliation Club which seems to be teeming with similar people with “issues” of some kind or other, whether criminal, sexual or financial in basis. See also: Devin Nunes, Bill Barr, Rudy Guiliani, Lindsay Graham, Marjorie Taylor Greene, Ronny Jackson, Sarah Huckabee, Brett Kavanaugh, Matt Gaetz, Greg Abbot, Ted Cruz, Ginni Thomas, Paul Manafort, Roger Stone, Steve Bannon, Jim Jordan and all the rest who’ve put their own personal or political survival over the country’s. But all patriotic God-fearing law and order Christians, if I’m not mistaken. At least that’s their personas. For now, I’m hoping Tim Scott’s fake fiancee sues him for non-payment.