Quietly Bad: NY Fed Survey Sends Ominous Signals

If you're the type who tracks each and every incoming macro release out of the world's largest economy, you might recall that medium-term inflation expectations moved up sharply in the last installment of the New York Fed's consumer survey. Specifically, expectations at the three-year horizon rose 0.4ppt MoM to 2.7% in the February vintage, the highest since November. 2.7% doesn't sound especially harrowing, and it's not. But the month-to-month increase was the third-largest in the (admittedly