If you’re the type who tracks each and every incoming macro release out of the world’s largest economy, you might recall that medium-term inflation expectations moved up sharply in the last installment of the New York Fed’s consumer survey.

Specifically, expectations at the three-year horizon rose 0.4ppt MoM to 2.7% in the February vintage, the highest since November. 2.7% doesn’t sound especially harrowing, and it’s not. But the month-to-month increase was the third-largest in the (admittedly short) history of the series.

Fast forward a few weeks and the new edition of the NY Fed survey (for March, released on Monday) showed yet another increase in medium-term inflation expectations, which now stand at 2.9%. The 0.54ppt two-month gain counts as the most pronounced in series history.

2.9% effectively means consumers expect the same rate of inflation over three years as they do over the next 12 months. Year-ahead expectations were unchanged at 3% for a third consecutive release.

I can’t be any more forthcoming: I’m making a mountain of a molehill. This isn’t a series the Fed cares a lot about. Traders don’t care anything about it. But it is what it is, so to speak. And what it is right now is the biggest two-month inflation expectations increase since the inauguration of the survey more than a decade ago, and on the horizon that matters most.

Obviously, the actual reading (i.e., the 2.9%) is nowhere near the high, which was 4.2% reached in September/October of 2021. But it’s at least worth noting that after receding to 2.4% in January, one of the lowest readings ever recorded, expectations bounced back so quickly. And so sharply.

Meanwhile, the New York Fed pointed out that respondents’ perceived probability of finding a new job in the event they were fired today decreased to 51.2% in March.

As the figure shows, that’s the lowest reading since early 2021.

That’s consistent with some data (e.g., the NFIB’s labor survey, which recently suggested small businesses have scaled back hiring plans meaningfully), but stands in stark contrast to the still-elevated number of job openings across the economy and ongoing strength in NFP headlines.

At the same time, Monday’s release showed the mean perceived probability of losing one’s job in the next 12 months rose to 15.7%, the highest since September of 2020 and above pre-pandemic levels.