Don’t look now, but existing US home sales surged last month, according to data released on Thursday.

You know the backstory. Hopefully, you can recite it yourself from memory: An intractable dearth of resale inventory attributable to the so-called “golden handcuffs” effect was responsible for one of the most protracted sales downturns in living memory.

As it turns out, raising interest rates rapidly after affording every homeowner in the country an opportunity to refinance their fixed-rate, 30-year loan at a historically low rate had the unintended consequence of freezing the housing market. (Who could’ve seen that coming? Not the Fed. Or not this Fed, anyway.)

Whether the market thaws in 2024 in part depends on whether mortgage rates come down enough to unlock supply. For buyers straining to make the math work, it might not matter, though: Enormous pent-up demand likely means any incremental supply will be absorbed quickly, particularly given the sensitivity of that demand to even the slightest decline in financing costs. That mismatch (and the implied competition) will keep prices supported, and may well drive them higher still.

In any case, the 9.5% MoM increase in existing sales reported by the NAR Thursday came as a shock to consensus. Economists were looking for a 1.3% decline.

Notably, February’s gain came atop an uptick in January which, while small in absolute terms, nevertheless counted as the largest in 11 months.

It’s entirely possible this is a false dawn, but inventories rose nearly 6% in February from the prior month, and more than 10% YoY. Demand was standing by: Months’ supply slipped to 2.9 from 3 in January as the sales pace picked up. For reference, that metric stood at 2.6 a year ago.

“Additional housing supply is helping to satisfy market demand,” NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said.

On the price front, the median notched an eighth consecutive YoY increase.

February’s 5.7% 12-month gain was the briskest since October of 2022, when the S&P troughed for the cycle.

At $384,500, the median’s still well below the peak. The high was around $415,000 in the summer of 2022. Notwithstanding the implied $30,000 discount, it still beggars belief that the “median” US family is well advised to finance a $400,000 purchase at damn near 7%. But… well, I’m exhausted with that debate by now. The nation’s worsening homelessness crisis suggests my skepticism isn’t misplaced.

Thursday’s figures rounded out a week of housing data which saw builder sentiment breach a key threshold separating net optimism from pessimism. Housing starts rebounded accordingly, according to government figures.

Commenting further, the NAR’s Yun said housing demand should rise steadily “due to population and job growth,” even as the timing of actual purchases “will be determined by prevailing mortgage rates and wider inventory choices.”