Fed Survey Suggests Credit Crunch Fears Overblown

The latest vintage of the Fed’s Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey was released on Monday afternoon. Who’s excited?!

I’m just joking. Sort of. The answer is a qualified “nobody.” Nobody’s interested, let alone excited, with a somewhat important caveat: Between a marginal (and unexpected) improvement in credit conditions last quarter, the dramatic easing in financial conditions during the interim period between surveys and last week’s CRE-related fireworks, you could make the case that the update was worth a mention.

The quick version, which is all you need, says the headline print suggested a marked moderation in the pervasiveness of tighter credit conditions. In this case “headline” means the net share of lenders tightening standards for C&I loans to large- and mid-sized firms.

That net figure was just 14.5%, less than half the 33.9% from three months ago. The same figure for smaller firms fell to 18.6% from over 30% in the last survey.

Demand for credit’s still tepid, but it’s improving commensurate with an incrementally less onerous environment, a solid macro backdrop and, importantly, the perceived proximity of Fed cuts.

Note that the cycle high for the headline was in excess of 50% midway through last year. So, the situation has improved dramatically on that score at least. In fact, the net share of banks which tightened loan standards last quarter was the smallest since 2022.

On the CRE front, it was largely the same story. The net percentage of banks tightening standards for all types of CRE loans receded further from the cycle peaks.

The incremental improvement certainly doesn’t scream “crisis,” although I should note that if less onerous credit conditions facilitate a thaw in the previously frozen CRE market, that could paradoxically facilitate more writedowns / higher provisions as price discovery forces banks to mark their portfolios to market.

Anyway, I hope this goes without saying, but to reiterate: This release shows the net share of banks tightening standards. It’s those saying they tightened standards minus those saying they eased them. So, Monday’s release still reflects stricter lending conditions, but the sharply lower (albeit still positive) net readings suggest the phenomenon is far less pervasive than it was a few quarters ago.

If you’re the Fed, you probably viewed the results as yet another indication that the economy can hold on for a while longer without rate cuts. Simply put: The credit crunch isn’t acute anymore.


 

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