Tesla is “between two major growth waves,” the company said on Wednesday afternoon in the US, while reporting earnings and revenue for Q4 that missed estimates.
The first wave is either over or waning. The second wave is pending. It’ll be “initiated by the global expansion of the next-generation vehicle platform.”
In the meantime, where that means 2024, the company’s volume growth “may be notably lower” compared to last year. This year, revenue growth for Tesla’s energy storage business will be brisker than top-line growth associated with selling cars.
I don’t know if that’s worrying or not, frankly. It doesn’t sound great. Tesla cut prices last year in a bid to juice sales. In other words, they prioritized volume. That worked. Deliveries were 1.8 million globally.
But that was last year. And this is Wall Street. It’s not “What have you done for me lately?” it’s “What are you gonna do for me tomorrow besides build a novelty truck?”
Specifically, investors were keen to hear any news around Elon Musk’s plans for a next-generation car, presumably a cheaper sedan. In the slide deck, Tesla was vague. Perfunctory, even. “We continue to make progress on our next generation platform,” the company said.
Maybe Musk has discussed the effort in more detail on “X.” I wouldn’t know. His behavior on social media is recklessly petulant, wildly inflammatory and in some cases, wholly bizarre, such that following him is all but impossible for self-respecting adults, a category which admittedly excludes a large subsection of investors and market participants.
Tesla’s revenue in Q4 was $25.17 billion, short of the $25.9 billion consensus expected. EPS of $0.71 was two cents short.
Notably, Tesla provided no delivery target for 2024. Analysts expect Tesla to sell 2.2 million vehicles this year. Apparently, investors will have to fly blind for a while, unless the company offers something in the way of guidance on the call. Margins were nowhere near as robust in 2023 as they were during the prior two years.
Cybertruck came up half a dozen times in the deck. Tesla’s ramping up production and deliveries. (Cybertruck’s not my aesthetic, but maybe I just don’t get it.)
If this were any other company, it’s likely the shares would suffer. Again: Investors were focused on growth, news on a next generation sedan and the guide. Tesla said volume growth will slow this year, gave no concrete timeline on the new vehicle and there was no guide.
Of course, this is Musk we’re talking about. He’ll probably get the benefit of the doubt despite his ceaseless, and at times inexplicable, efforts to alienate himself and his companies.



Your line about how difficult it is becoming all but impossible to follow his mind vectors brings a great cinematic moment to mind.
“We are wanting you to enjoy yourselves, within the limits of British decency. Do you understand?”
Any dings out there?
Glad I read the post about the TSLA etf supressing vol