Macro Amuse-Bouche Is Snoozer As Markets Look To Payrolls

The first of this week’s top-tier US macro data was profoundly uninteresting, where that means remarkable only for being consistent with economists’ forecasts.

Job openings across the world’s largest economy were 8.79 million on the last business day of November, Wednesday’s JOLTS update showed.

That was slightly below the 8.82 million consensus expected and, notably, it represented another decline thanks to an upward revision to the prior month’s headline.

Total vacancies are the lowest since March of 2021.

The pace of hiring receded, as did the quit rate. Layoffs were little changed. The report had soft landing vibes. What doesn’t these days, right?

At 2.2%, the quit rate is now the lowest since September of 2020.

Total quits, at 3.471 million, were the fewest since February of 2021.

Those figures are “another sign that workers are less willing to leave current roles in pursuit of new ones,” BMO’s Ian Lyngen remarked.

All in all, the report reinforced the “impossible” notion that labor market normalization can indeed be outsourced to the JOLTS headline, sparing the economy actual job losses.

Critics of that notion — i.e., those who continue to cast aspersions at “immaculate disinflation” as manifested in millions fewer job openings against no increase in the unemployment rate — are in many cases Democratic (capital “D”) economists and former Fed officials.

All of those people claim they just want what’s best for the economy and that no one is pulling harder for Jerome Powell than they are. They’re lying. In reality, they’d rather you lose your job than be proven wrong. If you being jobless means they get to go on business television and say, “See! I told you job losses were necessary to bring inflation back to target” they’d happily put you and your family in a soup line. (I’m exaggerating, but you get the point.)

Meanwhile, ISM manufacturing printed 47.4 for December. Consensus expected 47.1. (Blind squirrels, broken clocks, etc.)

December marked the 14th straight month in contraction territory for America’s marquee gauge of factory activity.

For what it’s worth, the final read on S&P Global’s factory gauge for the US in December was 47.9, down from the flash print. “US manufacturers ended the year on a sour note. Output fell at the fastest rate for six months as the recent order book decline intensified,” S&P Global’s chief business economist Chris Williamson said. “Given current order book trends, the overall picture from the survey is one of supply exceeding demand for many goods, which points to downside risks to production, employment and prices as we head into 2024.”

In the ISM survey, new orders fell, employment improved (but remained in contraction) and the prices paid index dropped to 45.2.

“Demand remains soft, and production execution is stable compared to November, as panelists’ companies continue to manage outputs, material inputs and labor costs,” ISM’s Tim Fiore said Wednesday. “Suppliers continue to have capacity.”

Suffice to say America’s factory malaise is ongoing. And it apparently doesn’t make a bit of difference. The country’s been in a manufacturing recession since November of 2022 and the overall economy has performed quite well. When it comes to driving growth in a society built on the provision of services by serfs, the latte is mightier than the widget. That’s a shame for Ukraine. Volodymyr Zelensky needs Rosie the Riveter not Bailey the Barista.

Anyway, Wednesday’s data was a snoozer. No one’s interested in the amuse-bouche this week, apparently. The same’ll probably go for Thursday’s ADP small plate. The main course, NFP, is what counts.


 

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2 thoughts on “Macro Amuse-Bouche Is Snoozer As Markets Look To Payrolls

  1. For what its worth, many of the materials and chemicals supplier names I’ve been looking claim that the channel inventory destocking that started in mid 2023 has mostly run its course.

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