It’s still possible that US equities could log gains for 2024.
The implication is completely ridiculous: That a good year for stocks is a long shot now because Wall Street didn’t rally during the new year’s first trading session.
But that’s the sort of bullshit that passes for analysis on January 2. Bloomberg, citing Tom Lee, said stocks may “do well in 2024 but… the first five days of January will set the tone.”
So go the first five sessions, so goes the year? Maybe. But I’m not sure we should jump out any windows just because the Nasdaq 100 had its worst day since October.
The gauge could afford to give some back. After all, it rose more than 50% in 2023, the best annual performance since the dot-com boom.
I’m not going to insult your intelligence: This is a meaningless market “update.” “Filler” material, so to speak. There’s nothing to be divined about the likely trajectory of anything from the first six and a half hours of cash trading in the new year.
If, by the end of this week, stocks are down and down big, well then maybe that’ll be something, particularly if any hypothetical losses are tied to the deluge of key US labor market data due over the next several days. For now, though, I’m not sure there’s a lot to see here.
Tesla was in the news. Elon Musk managed to deliver 484,507 cars in Q4 between telling former X advertisers to “go fuck yourself” and welcoming Alex Jones back to the platform.
Amusingly, BYD sold 526,409 EVs during the quarter. So, more than Musk sold. That means BYD is now the EV king.
I don’t know about anybody else, but Musk couldn’t pay me enough to drive a Tesla at this point. To drive a Tesla is to admit, to the world, that you paid Musk money. The same goes for blue check marks on “X.” If you paid Musk for one of those check marks, I have one question: How’s it feel to be a moron?
Meanwhile, Apple was downgraded at Barclays, where Tim Long’s worried about iPhone sales. The holiday quarter should be ok, Long said, but he lowered his March-quarter estimates, which are now even further below consensus. His price target is just $160 which, if realized, would push Apple to the brink of a bear market.
In rates, where the smart people are, Treasury yields were cheaper amid a heavy corporate slate. There was virtually no fundamental news worth mentioning. Thankfully, that’ll change starting Wednesday.
I am enjoying your “2024 tone”- the next Monthly Letter should be a real zinger! 🙂
It’s pretty somber, actually. I got a little behind on it because I wanted to cite a book that doesn’t come out until January 4, but then late last week I realized I could get it early (where in this case that meant instantly) on Kindle. I’m not accustomed to reading on Kindle (I despise it, actually), but it was worth the extra strain on my already screen-weary eyes to get the book early. Anyway… yeah, it’s coming and it’s somber.
The Nasdaq isn’t the “market”. My large-cap value ETF went up considerably yesterday. So for me the first 6 hours of cash trading must imply that the “market” will be up big time for 2024. I stopped trying to predict and time the market a long time ago. When I do fall for the temptation I generally underperform.
Thanks for the “start with the smack down”!
I console myself that buying a Tesla was the work of many people who are engineers and employees – that Musk is such a vain and petty person (like a certain ex-President) that he’d put his name on everything (including 11 children that we know of) even if he didn’t actually build my car.
Also, the Tesla Supercharger network really is superior.
I’m curious if the flow stats or the “capital gains calculate by oct 31st” type explanation describes today’s market? (which to your point is a completely normal event that stocks go both up and down 😉
There’s a bumper sticker you can put on your Tesla that reads “Bought it before we knew how awful he is.”
I’m not sure how you can equate one down day in a week when most financial services firms remain on vacation as an indication of, well, anything! My boss just bought a Tesla, he bargained with himself that it gives him access to their superior charging network. I tried to explain to him that most modern EV’s can use the Tesla charging network but he wasn’t able to overcome his love affair with shit he hears on television. He also often can’t overcome being distracted by right wing propaganda either, regardless of the volume of times I’ve completely refuted it. Some people just want to be told what to think I guess? By the way, ABSOLUTELY LOVING that we’re allowed to speak like real people on here now. 2024 is the year of “if you don’t like it you can leave” on the HReport!