In a minor blow to the US disinflation narrative, producer prices rose more than expected in July, according to data released Friday.
The final demand index posted a 0.3% increase from June, hotter than the 0.2% consensus expected.
Measured against the same month last year, PPI rose 0.8%. That too was warmer than economists anticipated, albeit not by much.
Recall that the last PPI report showed wholesale prices effectively flatlining. After revisions, June’s 0.1% MoM increase was revised to show no change.
The data’s capacity to move markets was limited after Thursday’s favorable CPI report. Still, it would’ve been nice to get further validation of the disinflation story headed into the weekend. Alas.
The core PPI prints were also a touch hotter than consensus. Excluding food and energy, PPI rose 0.3% against 0.2% expected (i.e., the same overshoot as the headline gauge). The YoY ex-trade services print was unchanged at 2.7%.
Notably, the final demand services index rose 0.5% in July from June. That was the largest monthly increase in almost a year. Most of that was attributable to a near 8% jump in prices for portfolio management. On the goods side, the final demand food gauge rose 0.5%, led by meat. It was the biggest month-to-month increase of the year.
Although nothing stuck out as especially foreboding in Friday’s figures, the small overshoot on the headline reading was disappointing at the margins (no PPI pun intended).
It’d be too much, I think, to suggest the numbers are indicative of lost disinflation progress. Rather, it’s more accurate to simply state the obvious: The “easy” part of the path back to the Fed’s definition of price stability is traversed. The rest of the way will be a tougher hike, or slog, if you can’t stand any more bad puns.


