More than $22 billion flowed into global stock funds over the latest weekly reporting period, a stretch that found stocks themselves gunning for their best week since March.

The MSCI World gauge was poised for a 3% gain amid a bull market on Wall Street, where the S&P came into Friday riding a six-session win streak.

If you’re keeping track at home, everything on the board is higher in 2023. US equities, EAFE, emerging market shares, high yield, IG, cash, REITS, bonds, gold… it’s all up. The lonely exception is commodities, which are down nearly 9%.

Things are “very frothy, but positioning still says the ‘pain trade’ is up, especially in ‘hard landing’ plays [like] REITs, banks, small-caps, oil, China and EM stocks, BofA’s Michael Hartnett said.

As discussed at some length on Thursday in “How Credible Are The Fed’s Hawkish Dots?”+, the market plainly doesn’t believe the Fed.

Perhaps the Committee has succeeded in disabusing rates of the notion that cuts are coming in the back half of the year, but to say there are doubts about the policymakers’ capacity and willingness to deliver two (or more) additional increases would be to understate the case. Stocks plainly weren’t concerned following the meeting.

Equities have rallied on “FOMC day + one” during two of the last three meeting weeks. This time, though, they were already in a bull market.

“The US equity market has hit full-on FOMO mode with ultra mega-caps driving the benchmark indices higher. The ‘Magnificent 7’ laugh in the face of an additional 50bps of rate hikes,” JonesTrading’s Mike O’Rourke remarked. “Markets are casting their votes that Chairman Powell does not have a grip on the situation.”

Do note that it probably wouldn’t take much to remove July’s “foregone conclusion” hike from the table. “How weak would NFP need to be to take a midsummer’s rate raise off the table?” BMO’s Ian Lyngen and Ben Jeffery asked, before answering. “For starters, a negative print would certainly do it. Short of an outright drop, the recent trajectory of stronger-than-expected payrolls gains provides a cushion for disappointment while keeping a hike in play [but] May’s 0.3pp gain in the unemployment rate has increased the relevance of the UNR [so] another gain of 0.2pp or higher would be sufficient to at least begin the conversation about skipping July as well.”

That’s good color. If jobless claims were to stay any semblance of elevated (a relative term), June payrolls were to soften materially (even if not dramatically) and the unemployment rate were to move up again, that’s a case for an extended pause, particularly if wage growth and inflation figures are any semblance of well-behaved.

Of course, as Lyngen and Jeffery went on to note, July could be the last chance. There’s quite a gap between next month’s meeting and September, so if the Committee really does want to reach for a higher terminal, they may prefer to do it sooner rather than chance missing the window. Even if inflation stays elevated, the longer they wait, presumably the more “cracks” they’ll see in the labor market, and if not, then it doesn’t matter — if the jobs market is still bulletproof by September and inflation is still too high, it’s not a terribly difficult decision.

Writing in the latest installment of his popular weekly “Flow Show” series, BofA’s Michael Hartnett described a “big rally before a big collapse.” But, he wrote, the collapse “now needs 6% terminal Fed funds, real rates to 2% and an unemployment rate above 4%.”