Unbothered By Bank Runs?

If you were wondering whether the second-largest bank failure in American history and fears of nationwide bank runs undermined consumer confidence in March, the answer is apparently "No, not really." I suppose you could suggest we should wait a month before we declare consumers unconcerned, but the cutoff data for responses to the Conference Board survey was March 20, almost two weeks after SVB failed. At 104.2, the headline print was ahead of every estimate. And there were 60 of them -- estim

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3 thoughts on “Unbothered By Bank Runs?

  1. Readers with a quant bent and time to do so might look for or calculate the correlation between consumer sentiment surveys and consumer spending. Unless things have dramatically changed, the predictive value of sentient surveys historically was quite low.

  2. You may have seen a note from the Fed today about pricing for housing. Here’s a look at the headline: Short-Term Home Price Expectations Drop Sharply. At least that is encouraging in regard to inflation pressure, and it’s the kind of trend I want to see.

    The sooner there may be broad-based pricing moderation, the sooner we can imagine getting away from inflationary influences and processes and return to regular market processes. It ain’t going to happen any time soon. But the more we see this sort of thing, the better.

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