It was inevitable, but now it’s official. Sort of.

US home prices are falling on a YoY basis for the first time in over a decade, according to one brokerage’s calculations.

During the four-week period ended February 26, the “typical” US home sold for 0.6% less than it did during the same stretch last year.

That’s according to Redfin, whose Dana Anderson on Thursday said revisions flipped the previous four-week YoY comp negative as well. The declines are the first since February of 2012.

In a report, Anderson blamed mortgage rates which, in lockstep with higher Treasury yields, rose sharply over the last four weeks. Daily average mortgage rates hit 7.1% on Thursday, according to Redfin, whose deputy chief economist called that “the straw that broke the camel’s back.”

The latest update from Freddie Mac, also released on Thursday, showed the average 30-year fixed rate rose 15bps over the last week, reaching 6.65% in the process.

“Now that rates are moving up, affordability is hindered, making it difficult for potential buyers to act,” Freddie Mac chief economist Sam Khater remarked. Data on Wednesday found an MBA gauge of mortgage applications falling to a fresh 28-year low.

Plainly, the renewed rise in rates is curbing demand. Indeed, it would appear that with home prices still very elevated, sidelined buyers are highly sensitive to changes in rates. I won’t win any awards for profundity with that observation, but I do implore readers to consider the context. The drop from the highs late last year helped drive an almost instantaneous rebound in housing activity, as manifested in upside surprises for pending home sales both in December and January. The move back to the sidelines in the face of suddenly higher rates was apparently just as swift.

Although the increase in contract signings likely presages a recovery for existing home sales, which fell a 12th straight month in January, it now looks as though activity could stall again depending on whether the recent bond selloff has any staying power.

A key gauge of national home prices rose at the slowest pace in 29 months in December, data out earlier this week showed, and NAR figures suggest YoY declines in existing home prices may be just one month away+. That’s the context for the Redfin figures released Thursday.

If you’re wondering whether that means houses will soon be some semblance of affordable for everyday people across the world’s largest economy, the answer is… well, I’ll let Redfin’s Taylor Marr explain the situation.

“Prices will probably decline a bit more in the coming months, but first-time buyers hoping to score a major deal this year are likely out of luck,” Marr said Thursday. “That’s because so few homeowners are listing their homes for sale. Limited inventory and continued interest in turnkey homes in desirable neighborhoods will keep prices somewhat propped up, and high rates will continue to be a hit on affordability.”

Speaking of affordability, an NAR index suggested conditions were the most onerous on record for first-time buyers in Q4, when a gauge of monthly mortgage payments hit an all-time high. Not surprisingly, the percentage of total sales in 2022 accounted for by first-time buyers was the lowest in history.

Zillow’s senior economist, Nicole Bachaud, summed it up. “We’re far from affordability for the masses,” she told Bloomberg.