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Talking In Circles
A recession is coming. Maybe.
That was one tentative message from America's largest banks, where executives put aside more for losses and adopted a relatively cautious cadence on the outlook for the world's largest economy while editorializing around fourth quarter results released on Friday.
To be sure, the message wasn't doom and gloom. Although JPMorgan and Bank of America expect a downturn, they don't anticipate a deep recession, and Citi's Mark Mason described a soft landing as "very mana
As I read this article, it made me think of my parents, who both grew up during the Depression. Their attitude was to buy what was necessary, keep it forever or until it was worn out, and save as much money as possible. I guess when my generation dies off, those values, for the most part, will too.
Well said H, well said.
Some of these musings are based on fallacious theories of how the economy works, emanating out of academia. Much of inflation this time came out of the supply side via a shutdown. Standard remedies will not work the same way and academic models will tend to be suboptimal or even fail. Inflation is coming under control. If you are a policymaker, the question is how fast you want to achieve your goal. And what is the cost?