Fed officials need to stop talking. Or at least dial it down. Back in February, while calling for a “Volcker moment,” the incomparable Zoltan Pozsar
Month: August 2022
Odysseus And The Sirens
Larry Summers is worried. About good news. Headline US inflation likely decelerated in July, which, if borne out by crucial data due Wednesday, would represent
Buffett Buys $3.8 Billion In Stocks, Loses 10 Times That On Paper
Warren Buffett bought more stock for his hedge fund and logged a massive paper loss during the second quarter, according to results out Saturday. Wait.
Fed Risks ‘Disaster’ As Americans’ Credit Card Balances Soar
For the US economy to fall into a proper recession (as opposed to a “technical recession,” a distinction which suddenly matters), the consumer has to
Goldman’s 2023 Recession EPS Case Is BofA’s Base Case
“The larger risk to 2023 EPS is a recession,” Goldman’s David Kostin said, in the course of cutting the bank’s forecast for US corporate profit
The Honor’s In The Dollar, Kid
An already convoluted outlook for markets was complicated further on Friday by a jobs report seen likely to embolden the Fed on the path to
Fed Pivot Math Seen Wildly Implausible
According to one popular sell-side strategist, a string of “very hot” US economic data could catalyze a “rip lower” for recently buoyant equities. For the
US Recovers All Jobs Lost To Pandemic
Total nonfarm employment in the US returned to pre-pandemic levels in July, hotly-anticipated government data out Friday showed. It was a milestone. The White House
Careful! It Could Be A Trap
Fade it at 4,200. That’s still the mantra for some strategists convinced the nascent rebound in US equities is likely to run out of steam
Delaying The Inevitable (Enigmatic Dreams Of A Better Future)
Enigmatic. That’s the best way to describe second quarter earnings season in the US, where the combination of corporate pricing power and a purportedly resilient
Chasing Ghosts: The Rally That Wasn’t There
For weeks, 4,200 on the S&P was bandied about by some top-down strategists as a “sell-the-rip” level — a kind of bridge too far for
2023 Rate Cut Standoff Puts Fed, Markets On Collision Course
If you ask Mary Daly, a slowdown in the US labor market is “completely worth it” if it means taming prices. She spoke Wednesday during
Nightmare: BoE Hikes Most In 27 Years, Predicts Recession, 13% Inflation
The Bank of England hiked rates for a sixth consecutive meeting Thursday. The 50bps move was the largest since 1995, prior to independence. The vote
300 Million Hamsters
Has the Fed regained its credibility as a check on inflation? That’s the question. Answers run the gamut. At one extreme are incredulous lamentations for
Cognitive Dissonance: Services Sector Edition
Call off the recession. Maybe. A key gauge of US services sector activity defied a dour signal from an alternative survey, suggesting the biggest part
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