US Small Business Hiring Collapsed In April, Alarming Data Shows

US Small Business Hiring Collapsed In April, Alarming Data Shows

US private sector employers added 247,000 jobs in April, ADP said Wednesday. That was far fewer than anticipated. Consensus expected 383,000 (figure below). No forecaster predicted a print below 300,000. The underwhelming figures could reset expectations for Friday's nonfarm payrolls headline, but only around the margins. ADP has been a poor predictor of NFP in the pandemic era. The data included upward revisions to February and March. April's headline was the weakest of the recovery, fall
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2 thoughts on “US Small Business Hiring Collapsed In April, Alarming Data Shows

  1. Great point on the crowding out of small business. How many small businesses were built and dependent on access to minimum wage labor? We are finding out.

    Beyond that, personnel managers, like their counterparts in purchasing, have been facing many shortages. All rational until the CEO drops by and suggests “why don’t we reduce our efforts a bit. The folks in marketing say that demand is starting to soften.” (Reinforcing the notion that employment is a lagging indicator.)

    I also wonder how many of those job openings cited in the JOLTS report are a charade of sorts. Before a company can apply for 12b-1 visas, they have to show proof that they tried and failed to find US workers who could fill the opening. Thus ads like “looking for programmer with Cobol, C++, Oracle DB as well as skills in AI and analog chip design. Offering $60,000 plus 401K match.”

    The number of 12b-1 visas has been cut, but I’d wager there are still many similar ads are still out there.

    1. What I meant to add in he second paragraph was that your friends in purchasing were “encouraged” to over-procure chips & such while personnel departs were given a full speed ahead on hiring. Thus the JOLTS number. BUt once demand for a company’s product start tp decline, those ads will disappear.

      Relevant in the context of Chairman Powell’s measured responses to stupid questions from Liesman & co. I was pleasantly surprised by the opening questions from the Wall Street Journal reporter.

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