215,000 Americans filed for unemployment benefits in the week to February 26, the government said Thursday.

That was fewer than the 225,000 economists expected. The range was 200,000 to 240,000.

The four-week moving average is falling again. It was 230,500 last week (figure on the left, below).

The 18,000 weekly drop marked the second consecutive decline (figure on the right). Continuing claims in the week to February 19 were 1.476 million, more than expected.

Obviously, this data has lost quite a bit of relevance. That’s not to suggest we shouldn’t be cognizant of the fact that the numbers are actually people, not “data,” but the days of obsessing over every incoming claims report are over. The situation has stabilized.

Meanwhile, ISM services printed a woeful miss for February. At 56.5, the headline read missed the lowest estimate from five-dozen economists and was nowhere near the 61.1 consensus expected. It marked the worst print in a year (figure below).

The final read on IHS Markit’s gauge for last month slipped to 56.5 from the 56.7 flash print.

There were some ostensibly encouraging signs in the ISM report. Inventory sentiment improved, for example. “Services businesses are beginning to replenish inventories,” ISM’s Anthony Nieves remarked.

But business activity decelerated, as did new orders, with the former the lowest since May of 2020 and the latter the lowest since this time last year. Deliveries slowed and the employment index indicated contraction, printing 48.5, an 18-month low. The prices paid index remained very elevated.

“Respondents continue to be impacted by supply chain disruptions, capacity constraints, inflation, logistical challenges and labor shortages. These conditions have affected the ability of panelists’ businesses to meet demand, leading to a cooling in business activity and economic growth,” Nieves went on to say Thursday.

The color accompanying the Markit report contradicted ISM on some points, while echoing it on others. “Supporting the overall upturn in output was the fastest increase in new business for seven months,” the survey said. Businesses cited increased demand from new and existing customers, and said “greater new orders led to a steeper upturn in workforce numbers.” Selling price inflation hit a new record.

“Increased staffing numbers reflected a wider trend of greater optimism among service sector firms during February,” IHS Markit went on to say, noting that “the degree of confidence in the outlook regarding output for the coming year was the highest since November 2020.”

I’m not sure I’d use the word “conflicting” to describe the juxtaposition between the two surveys, but they diverged in several key areas.

Of course, this is all stale. IHS Markit’s Chris Williamson did a nice job of summarizing what matters going forward. “The Ukraine conflict is leading to further upward movements in energy and broader commodity prices, which will add further to US inflationary pressures,” he cautioned. “More uncertain will be the extent to which business confidence is being affected by the war.”