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The Infallible Dip-Buyers
The latest swoon for US equities proved to be another opportunity.
Once again, investors' classical conditioning was reinforced. Pavlov lives.
The S&P logged its second best week of 2021 on the way to new highs (simple figure below), despite sparse information on the Omicron variant and no indication whatsoever that the Fed will be dissuaded from announcing an accelerated taper pace at next week's meeting.
"The case to accelerate tapering is strong; after all, it becomes a moot point if m
Last I read, ECB is still saying that inflation is transitory and does not expect to raise rates in 2022.
I am wondering how this will/will not impact the actions of the US Federal Reserve.
2021 will mark the first year in 15+ of retirement planning / retirement transition / wealth management that I did not sell one single stock security – I doubt I’m alone in this newfound experience …
Pavlov lives. Yet, let’s see what has changed in a week–Omicron fears diminished in line with JPM thesis and markets have accepted the faster taper and seem to believe wrongly in my view that tapering is not tightening and finally are fixated on Dec seasonal. Thus markets sit at ATH. Question to ask is if all the good news is in the price or more importantly does that matter given the positive momentum or more to the point what could cause another reversal. To this I have no clue but pro-risk positions seem incredibly dangerous given the consensus view that these threats have been digested and minimized as well as the obvious releveraging of positions, no matter what the GS thing says which is probably smoothed. Count me as very nervous that its a one way higher into year end. One thing I did notice was a massive outflow over a couple of days for Vanguard SPX ETF, its probably nothing, possibly tax related…so I am guessing markets will ignore it…So says a frustrated bear.