Cases keep rising, and people keep dying, but Americans are a stubborn bunch. Stubborn is a euphemism.
The latest polling data from Gallup showed vaccine resistance was steady for a third month running. Around one in five Americans say they won’t be vaccinated even with shots available to them right now, for free. That cohort (18%) say they’re “unlikely to change their mind about it.”
Of course, that makes them far more likely to be hospitalized with a severe case of COVID and far more likely to die from the virus. But damn the torpedoes. To the detriment of the polity. On a bad day, the US is now losing more than a 1,000 people to the virus (figure below).
One underappreciated dynamic associated with this exceptionally unfortunate situation is that it reinforces stereotypes, as the majority of the country is compelled to ponder the disconcerting prospect that their conspiracy-minded, often undereducated fellows represent a biological hazard in addition to myriad other perils associated with what, at this point, can only be described as an extremist ideology fostered by what we’re still calling the GOP.
A large subset of the electorate is now a triple threat. They resort to threats of physical violence against their neighbors for something as simple as putting a mask on a child before sending her off to commingle with other children and teachers, some of whom may be infected. They perpetuate patent falsehoods about everything from the virus to the country’s elections, often pulling in the (previously) sane along the way. And a subset of that subset (including some members of Congress) in January demonstrated their willingness to submit to authoritarian rule.
Little wonder “Americans’ assessment of the COVID-19 situation has turned negative, and they are less confident they can protect themselves from the virus,” as Gallup put it, recapping, on the way to noting that “consistent with those attitudes, Americans are now less satisfied with the way the vaccination process is going.” Less than two-thirds are satisfied, down from nearly 80% in May (figure below).
The current reading is the lowest measured by Gallup since February. This coincided with a steep decline in consumer sentiment and weak retail sales.
Earlier this month, still another Gallup poll showed that nearly a quarter of Americans order groceries online at least once a month. That figure was just 11% in 2019. And no, that isn’t the result of rapidly improving technology.
“Reports of multiple grocery store visits in a week are down six percentage points since 2019, while those who say they are shopping in person once or twice a month has edged up four points to 18%,” the same poll said. “Presumably, then, people are buying more food on fewer trips to the grocery store, are doing some of their shopping online rather than in the store, or both.”
Yes, “presumably” so. And “presumably,” those trends would be less acute if shoppers didn’t have to live with the reality that one out of every five people they pass in the grocery store refuses to be vaccinated and is “unlikely to change their mind about it.”
Meanwhile, frequency of eating out has cratered (figure below).
As one reader pointed out over the weekend, that’s lost demand. And it isn’t “recaptured” later. It’s lost forever. If you and your spouse used to dine out every week, but now only once per month, the two of you don’t order eight chicken piccatas to “make up” for what you didn’t order on your “missed” visits.
Even Americans with money to blow are eschewing public chewing. “Americans in households with annual incomes of at least $100,000 were the most frequent restaurant diners in 2019,” Gallup said, noting that “two years ago, 67% said they dined out at least once a week, but that has fallen to 52% now.”
All “pent-up” demand stories and labor shortage tales aside, that doesn’t bode well for the restaurant industry. Now that you mention it, perhaps servers and bartenders have already figured this out. Maybe that’s contributing to the acute labor shortage illustrated so poignantly in the figure (below)
To the extent big bank forecasts for the US economy rely on expectations of robust consumer spending in the services sector, the above might be worth considering.
“Can we avoid a winter wave? An important reason for our benign holiday forecast is the build-up in natural immunity from the current wave,” BofA said last week, while acknowledging that “natural immunity is not well understood and we cannot rule out another, even more transmissible variant.”
Right. And here’s the thing: Even virologists and epidemiologists aren’t very good at modeling virus dynamics, in part because 20% of the population refuses to be vaccinated.
Invariably, that 20% has conjured all manner of excuses for their (objectively dangerous) decision. Typically, when people try to rationalize what a tiny part of their brain suspects might be poor judgment, they explain their rationale aloud, to others. That, in turn, raises the amount of misinformation in circulation, and increases the number of people who search for confirmation bias online, where for-profit peddlers of vaccine misinformation are more than happy to oblige.
Consider the following passages from The New York Times:
The Gulf Coast, a tourist haven that draws throngs of revelers to beaches across several Southern states, has been sorely afflicted as the Delta variant tears through the region, which has relatively low rates of vaccination and often lax safety measures. But even compared to other parts of the South that are struggling against the latest wave of the virus, the Gulf Coast stands out like an angry red scar on maps that depict coronavirus hot spots and hospitalizations. The average per person hospitalization rate for Panama City, Fla.; Mobile, Ala.; and Gulfport, Miss.; is considerably higher than that of their states as a whole, even though they are three of the four states with the highest rates in the country.
So, stupidity squared. Or cubed.
Of course, you can’t reason with most of those people. If they aren’t undereducated, they’ve succumbed to conspiratorial thinking at some juncture or, more and more commonly, they’ve adopted a kind of simpleton’s Libertarianism without bothering even to dip their toes into the rich body of literature associated with the political philosophy they purport to profess.
In the process, they commit an atrocity against centuries of human progress: They shout about “liberty,” inadvertently enlisting some of history’s greatest thinkers in one of the stupidest crusades imaginable.
Most of those thinkers are doubtlessly aghast at being posthumously conscripted into this army of imbeciles, something they’ll likely make clear when they meet the scores of dying vaccine skeptics in the afterlife.
The saddest part is, we have to let them go. Joe Biden insists we can save them, but we can’t. These are people who hear “social contract” and say “I didn’t sign any contract.” Many of them also doubt Darwin. Ironic because… well, you get the point.
Perhaps today’s FDA approval of the Pfizer vaccine will sway SOME of the skeptics.
It is true that people are eating out less. However, Uber Eats is booming.
Check out Fridge No More. Groceries delivered within 15 minutes and no order is too small. They are already expanding outside of NYC metro area.
Bicycle delivery is a fast growing part of the economy in Europe. No idea how much they get paid, but it can’t be much.
I, for one, have completely lost patience with these “LINOs.” That is merely a dust cover for stupid people to stand up and flaunt their ignorance as pride in largely incomprehensible public speeches and declarations about their incisive “understanding” of the latest in medical science and Constitutional scholarship. Go South, young stupid man!
Look at it this way: one possible side effect is that, barring other maladies, you could actually be here in 10 years to witness those side effects thanks to the vax
It was impossible to definitively rule out the possibility that one of the (many) ingredients in Orange Vanilla Coca-Cola (or, as it turned out, a combination of them) would turn people into armadillos 64 years later. Clearly, more testing was needed before releasing the product to the public, five armadillos dressed in suits said, at an FDA briefing on June 13, 2094.
It’s a big issue and the virus is definitely the most pressing now and likely for a few years given the rest of the world is also not getting vaccines and the virus has a pretty solid track record of mutating “improved” strains every few months. What’s worse is that while 20% will NEVER get the vaccine I would hazard another 20-30% who will wait until it is waaaay to late. People who are waiting for panic to set in to act. People who think they can go get the vaccine after supply chains collapse.
How will we do this winter? Well it isn’t winter yet and its pretty bad so that’s a bit like asking what will happen to the bonfire when you throw 5 gallons of gasoline on it. I think this winter we see hospitals refusing to serve the unvaccinated nationwide full stop. I mean if you’re not interested in the social contract, we can always go back to making pariahs I guess.
No one else will say this so I will. Anti-vaxers say they are exercising their right to chose, no matter who it hurts. Fine. Then hospitals should exercise their right to choose who to treat. No vax, no service. Not only are the anti-vs risking their own lives but they are choking our heath care system when they could avoid it. Don’t get a heart attack in the south right now, there are no hospital beds. Don’t catch cancer or any of many other serious maladies because you can’t get treated since the hospitals are stuffed with the clinically stupid and selfish. I, for one, have had enough of this. When polio was at its height and the Salk vaccine first came out two nurses came to my grade school one day with trays of syringes and we all lined up in our class rooms and the nurses passed among us. Everyone of us had a shot by 3:00. Nobody didn’t want the shot because the alternative for many was paralysis from the neck down, death, or crippling injury. Most of the big vaccines weren’t developed when I was a kid so I got mumps (very bad case, risk of sterility) Rubella twice (risk of blindness), chicken pox (shingles and cold sores for the rest of your life) and as an adult, whooping cough variant (cracked three ribs coughing). People who choose not to take care of themselves should not be taken care of by the rest of us when the worst comes home to roost.
Amen!
If we’re lucky enough that a non-vaccinated is likely to die, absent treatment, let him/her. His/her death is making the world a better place (barring specific health issues truly preventing vaccination). Willing to make an exception if he/she is rich enough to pay a king’s ransom for treatment.
“Not believing in Darwin” is the temporal thin edge of the wedge in all of this. Creationism is not an alternate theory, it is patently unsupportable as anything but magical thinking. When political leaders bow to interest groups (for votes and cash) to make it something that students in school can “consider”, then Pandora’s Box is open to all forms of magical thinking and there is new opportunity for political entrepreneurs.
What amount of time do you think is needed before releasing anything new to the public?
I remember one battle earlier in my adult life – that was around GMO. In Europe, France in particular, resistance was strong. I was down with the objection that Monsanto shouldn’t be allowed to squeeze our farmers dry. But I was also more or less on board with the “who knows what’ll do to us in 15 or 20 years?” It turned out the answer was “nothing”.
There’s such a thing as too much caution. Trust scientists not directly employed by the company selling you the product aren’t engaged in a conspiracy to murder you and yours.
True. But we’re pretty close to consensus on the side effects of a covid infection.
An apt comparison are laws against drunk driving. My liberty to get behind the wheel after eight Laphroigs was taken away from me. In the name of saving others. What an impingement on my rights!!
Or better – laws requiring the wearing of pants. I don’t want to wear pants and why should I? The only danger to others is seeing something they can’t unsee.
In ten years I may be part of the oil supply. I’ll take (have taken) my chances!
The last paragraph of this post is 100% right, we have to stop trying to save the group that poses the biggest threat, best to figure out a way to save everyone else, lessen the blow to our healthcare workers and shield our economy to the extent such feat is possible, the antivaxers are too far gone.
Agreed, B.E.T. It is futile.
On a happier note, my wife & I plan to go out this week and publicly chew.
its not just the northern gulf coast, its the whole gulf coast and I 75 interstate. Im in SWFL. Local school board on 8/16 had the local DOH person and a Director of Pediatrics of the largest health system locally there. The Dr. said, “given the infection rate over 24%, if you are unvaxxed and unmasked and go into a room with people…that is dangerous”. DOH mentioned the ballooning local cases. Hospital beds/capacity was discussed. In Naples/Collier county they are OVERcapacity now and in Lee, 96% capacity of ICU beds. The board decided to take public input the next day and vote on whether to impose a mask mandate in local schools. They already mandate it, as much a a FL county can, with the opt-out for parents to sign. only 15% of parents turned in an opt out form.
the next day, 8/17 there was public input. well over 200 people in attendance. VAST majority were wearing stickers that had a picture of a masked child = child abuse. They ALL had it. They were all a part of conservative christian group, (google ccswfl.com and it will come up– they are EXPLICIT in pushing their religious values into political discourse). 84 people signed up to speak. 4 were pro mask (myself included). ALL the rest were just like this article said. Cries of freedom/liberty; vaccines are made from monkey blood; masks cause pneumonia headaches and depression; vaccines dont work as evidenced by some vaxxed going to hospital and on and on. It was quite disturbing and can be viewed on youtube…just search lee county school board from 8/17. they believe its Gods Will, and that most data is fake and they arent at risk. In this group of maskless horde were about 20 kids under 12 they brought, some spoke too. some had trump shirts on, and ‘we will not comply’ is a rallying cry.
they are a small but very vocal segment of this now deep deep southern branch of the bible belt. Its Ralph Reeds wet dream come to life. poorly written posters “stop indoctrinating our children”.
the board made comments about what they thought prior to the vote. it was obvious to me they were against mask mandate. yet after board comments, it was opened up again to public comment….all the hands went up….more insults to the board, haranguing comments, false information. these people dont have the comprehension to understand they were about to get the vote they wanted. board voted 1-5 against change to policy. our congressional rep was there too byron donalds….his comment “the governor has issued orders and its the law to follow them”. he voted against confirming the votes on jan 6. view it on youtube.
seeing all this in person, not just a clip fromlocal tv…..is very unnerving to say the least. theres always comments like above about how Darwinism will prevail….but it never does. maybe this time some impact? 40% of deaths from covid are also type 2 diabetic. the redder the state the more cases and the higher obesity. trump has enabled the ignorant to demonize education and the expert class. They wont stay to themselves, they want THE LAW to state their extreme religious values….they are the xian taliban.
@AVW — wow, what a valuable eyewitness post.
Wall Street pundits, “strategists” and pundits might benefit from spending more time outside of the Hamptons and metro areas before they so confidently call the end to the pandemic. But that’s not their job now, is it?
Anyway, thanks for the post. Awesome.