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Powell: Virus ‘Loose Out There. No One Is Safe’
The July 2021 edition of Jerome Powell's post-FOMC press conference series produced no shortage of amusing soundbites, depending on your definition of amusing.
To reiterate, Powell isn't a world-renowned virologist, nor is he an economist. Technically, then, he isn't qualified to weigh in on epidemics or economics in any official capacity, which is a problem considering he's Fed Chair during a pandemic.
He does have quite a bit of experience making policy, though, and his CV belongs in the dic
“Macroeconomic time” is like dog years, only in reverse. 🙂
But I can’t believe you passed up an opportunity to make an analogy to “tightening and easing simultaneously.” Lay-up.
Powell is doing a pretty good job under trying circumstances. Interesting that the fiscal bills were not topic 1. They would be for me.
Why doesn’t someone ask Chair Powell whether 2% GDP growth isn’t just a function of a 2% annual inflation rate. Not a crazy thought, right? In which case the U.S. economy, in terms of real productivity, hasn’t grown at all since 2008.
slow claps
mfn: In my mind your conclusion is not far off. I have always felt that expected long run growth should be roughly 1+pop gr x 1+ infl. rate. So if inflation is 1.5-2.0% and population growth is something under 1.0% then my growth expectation would be 1.015 x 1.01 = 1.025 or 2.5% (to 3.0%). That seems about right. In real terms, 1.0%, ignoring inflation.