If you go by TLT, bonds are in a bear market. The widely-followed long-end product fell early Friday following "surprise" overnight weakness in bonds, pushing its losses from last year's highs beyond 20% (figure below). Earlier this year, the fund wiped away the majority of its pandemic-inspired surge. The next milestone could be a retracing of the rally catalyzed by the August 2019 growth scare. If you're looking to explain weakness in bonds, you're never at a loss for culprits these days.