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I’m Old Enough To Remember The Bond Selloff
So much for 1.25%.
Late last week, I wrote that the US 10-year was "basically just loitering at 1.10% looking for direction." The market absorbed January's heavy supply, digested the "blue sweep," took account of Joe Biden's $1.9 trillion stimulus plan, and listened to Janet Yellen chat with lawmakers about a 50-year bond. None of that was enough to catalyze the next leg higher in yields, where that means Buzz Lightyear-style cries of "To 1.20% and beyond!" As I put it Friday, 1.25% was starti
It is interesting that the analysts focuss on the treasury supply issues while every deep thinker knows it is not so much about supply as it is about psychology. Once evidence of an inflationary trend persists…..the market blows up and looses its bearings. And the question is when, not if…..
Inflation is always and everywhere just around the corner…
Bond yields are a policy variable.