Everybody’s A Dollar Bear For 2021

The dollar looked poised to close out the year with a second consecutive monthly decline, consistent with the prevailing view that the stars have aligned for a 2021 characterized by a weaker greenback. By now, the narrative (or, if you think your tasseography is more sophisticated than the next person's, you can substitute "thesis" for "narrative") is familiar. The Fed's determination to keep real rates low and financial conditions loose, alongside fiscal largesse in D.C., will undermine the do

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3 thoughts on “Everybody’s A Dollar Bear For 2021

  1. I understand that a weak dollar helps exports, but since the U.S. imports so much, won’t a weak dollar hurt the consumer?

    I am currently living in France, and Lord knows that if I hadn’t changed a whole bunch of dollars into euros some time ago, I’d sure be a hurting turkey right now.

  2. The author is correct. If US growth rates pick up relative to the rest of the world, the dollar is likely to strengthen not weaken. Also if the Biden administration is seen as stable and a haven, you could see the dollar perform relatively well. Right now things are in flames- would you want to buy dollars right now if you were a foreign investor given the political backdrop?

  3. Dec seasonals are traditionally poor for the dollar, so weakness on that basis is not surprising. The dollars demise seems linked to risky asset melt-up. Positioning seems way down the list of market concerns–it has been elevated for months, no accidents yet. Dollar bulls are in need of medication to remain sane.

NEWSROOM crewneck & prints