Georgia (Still) On My Mind
In the immediate aftermath of the US election, markets cheered what was variously billed as a kind of best-case scenario.
Investors had months to get comfortable with a Joe Biden presidency, and had largely convinced themselves that pro-growth, demand-side stimulus, more predictable trade policy, and diminished "tweet risk" would more than make up for the mechanical downside from higher corporate taxes. Any de-rating in equities on a "blue sweep" would be temporary, many analysts said, as the o
Are you trying to tell us that Trump thinks that not signing the relief package and allowing millions of families to slide into poverty and losing their homes would somehow look good on him and the Republicans when the 2024 election race starts to heat up?? And that could start as early as the Georgia run-offs?? I wonder if Chavez has contacted trump about a pardon?? He could certainly afford it.
Just a raised middle finger to Moscow Mitch for calling the election.
My guess: Dem sweep (2 of 2) in GA is +ve for recovery and reflation trades, -ve for broad indices, big tech, UST, USD. Anything else is steady as she goes, maybe with some fillip from unwinding hedges.
Another guess of mine is that 2 of 2 or 0 of 2 are the likeliest outcomes, with 1 of 2 much less likely. I’m thinking this is a turnout election.
Final guess is the result won’t be known on Jan 5 or soon thereafter.
There will be a lot of eyes on this election.
Does seem the tally will again be fluid after the fifth. Pun intended.