Jobless claims surged last week, data out Thursday showed.
853,000 Americans filed for unemployment benefits in the week ending December 5, far more than the 725,000 the market expected, and the highest total since mid-September.
Note that the range of estimates from more than three-dozen economists was 675,000 to 900,000, so the actual print nearly matched the most pessimistic guess.
The previous week’s total was revised higher, and the four-week moving average rose to 776,000.
The disconcerting headline claims number comes as Congress continues to dither on stimulus. Note that the bipartisan relief bill supported by top Democrats and moderate Republicans includes an extension of federal assistance for the unemployed, while Steve Mnuchin’s package, endorsed by the White House and Mitch McConnell, effectively replaces that with $600 checks. Which would you rather have if you’re unemployed? $600 or ongoing federal assistance?
Continuing claims for the week ending November 28 were 5.76 million. That too is worse than consensus expected. The market was looking for 5.21 million.
The disappointing November jobs report added a sense or urgency to stimulus talks inside the Beltway. One wonders if the claims figures will have the same effect.
There is some nuance. Last week’s print was a big downside surprise (i.e., better than expected), presumably due to Thanksgiving. “Reverse the effect, and you have a big jump today,” Bloomberg’s Cameron Crise remarked.
Continuing PUA and PEUC claims fell during the week of November 21, but given the lagged reading and the poor headline print on initial claims, one imagines that’s not going to garner much attention.
The bottom line is that the labor market now appears to be on the brink of decelerating materially. Congress is behind the curve. Both on the economy and certainly on the virus itself.
To repeat H … these are real people – our neighbors, our friends, our family … not just numbers, charts, and statistics. I keep reminding myself so i do not go numb
Does not bode well for the holiday shopping season. Fewer paychecks now, means lower holiday spend, means even fewer jobs and paychecks come January. And let’s be clear: the blame for all that falls squarely in Mitch McConnell’s lap.
I can’t shake the idea that one person, McConnell, can completely control almost the entire domestic political agenda via his decades long plan to make the majority leader a monarch. Certainly there are two sides in the current congressional battle, however it’s one guy who is blocking the bipartisan proposal on more relief. McConnell has been getting away with this absolute control since 2012. He broke the norms and customs of the Senate (Harry Reid owns some of that) to effectively dominate it. It’s common knowledge that the so-called ‘greatest deliberative body in the world’ doesn’t deliberate anymore. Democracy needs ideas to be openly debated or it’s broken. Lack of debate is the hallmark of dictatorships and authoritarian regimes. The last bastion of democracy is free and fair elections and that is seriously under attack by our dear leader. What next?
To add another question to the one above, who has the power to change America’s course at this point. I think it’s up to the monied interests who are the only option as they drive the engine of capitalism. McConnell kept them quiet by making sure they continued to get their 90%? cut off the top. Trump kept them quiet by using the bully pulpit to attack any who tried to stray from the heard. Live by American capitalism and die by it – a slow and steady decline perhaps as there isn’t a clear castle to storm. Writers like H G Wells look more and more prescient these days.
The power is in the people’s hands. Enough have to stand up and fight for change for it to occur. Change does not happen for the sake of wishing, it requires action.
Couldn’t agree more about McConnell……..a Senator from a small state currently has more power than
the President and has for almost a decade.
The power he wields must be intoxicating.
This is a serious flaw in our system……where are the checks on this kind of power? A miilion
conservative voters in Kentucky have re-elected a guy with an 18% approval rating and made
him the most powerful person in the world.
Now if you’re seriously interested in investigating either election fraud or voter manipulation that may be a good place to start.
VP Harris could take her constitutional role as Presiding Officer of the Senate. McConnell gets a lot of his power from refusing to bring bills to floor vote, thus sparing GOP Senators from the embarassment of voting against relief for their constituents.
Why don’t we hear that proposed more often? The VP presiding over the senate would change the game.