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Fiscal Cliffs And New Lockdowns Undercut Signal From June Data
Hit or miss, apparently.
Tuesday's non-marquee data stateside was a mixed bag, with the Chicago PMI woefully missing estimates (it's typically noisy anyway) and consumer confidence coming in ahead of expectations, near the top end of the range.
The jump in the Conference Board's gauge looks to be among the largest in years. Nevertheless, we're a long way from erasing the COVID plunge.
“Consumer Confidence partially rebounded in June but remains well below pre-pandemic levels", Lynn Franco
I do not believe that all this positive data indicates that our economic future has turned the corner and that the future looks great.
From my view- home sales are up because people are desperate to leave living in multi-family high rise/communal front door living situations, not because of confidence in their economic future. Combine this sentiment with record low interest rates and we have a temporary increase in sales. I would not want to be trying to sell a condo in the central downtown area of a large city right now.
Expensive homes in mountain communities are “flying off the shelf” probably because if you are scared to put all of your money in the market, you can at least buy a beautiful home and enjoy living in the mountains and remove yourself from people in the USA who will not take personal responsibility and wear a mask.
These increases in home sales are probably not the start of a longer term trend, IMHO.
In addition, I am reading more and more about H1N1 swine flu brewing in China.
Corona plus swine does not equal “lets party like its 1999”.
Having done about what you describe above and invested heavily in larger type land holdings ( in the Mountain States ) I clearly see the Sociological variables that are attempting a reversion in an epic pendulum swing .. Times are a changing ( to quote a neighbor ) and I think some attitudes are in process of being revised on Government , Finance as well as Geopolitical practices. These things are healthy phenomenon and can serve to diversify an ever increasing Herd mentality back toward a greater emphasis on individuality..
H1N1 warning appears like classic CYA by risk averse Chinese government. No evidence yet this new variant has sustained a spread into human population. Over 5 years this variant is now noted in blood of certain hog farm workers. Likely it is ‘cooking’ along an uncertain path but is not yet ripe for transmission. If they announce this they deflect potential criticism with no downside to themselves .