It was only - checks notes - seven days ago, when Howard Marks declared it was time for investors to at least consider going on offense.
"Conditions have changed such that caution is no longer as imperative", Marks wrote, in his fifth memo in five weeks. "With part of the crisis-related losses having already taken place, I’m somewhat less worried about losing money and somewhat more interested in making sure our clients participate in gains", he added.
That represented something of a reversal for Marks who, just a week previous, said that due to a "wider range of negative outcomes" compared to the conditions which persisted during the GFC, he "expects asset prices to decline".
Through Tuesday, the S&P was up nearly 29% from the March lows. The bounce (which skeptics including myself are still keen to describe as a "bear market rally") has been helped along by trillions in fiscal stimulus and what amounts to a promise from the Fed to make everyone "whole".
That implicit promise from the Fed rests on the notion that the pandemic isn't anyone's "fault", and therefore shouldn't be "allowed" to trigger outcomes which many market participants have long warned would accompan
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