economy Markets

Record Surge In Jobless Claims Suggests Unemployment Rate Rose More This Week Than Any Monthly Gain In US History

"[That] would raise the unemployment rate by more than half, by 2 percentage points from 3.5% to 5.5%, moving back to 2015 levels in just one week”.

"[That] would raise the unemployment rate by more than half, by 2 percentage points from 3.5% to 5.5%, moving back to 2015 levels in just one week”.
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13 comments on “Record Surge In Jobless Claims Suggests Unemployment Rate Rose More This Week Than Any Monthly Gain In US History

  1. Perfect time to “buy the dip” –the disconnect between the market and the real suffering and dying in the real world is rather extraordinary.

  2. I’m not a sophisticated investor, but I was lucky enough to go all cash near the peak. I’ve been waiting for the right re-entry point and almost pulled the trigger at Dow 18,000. The last three days have made me want to throw up my hands and turn my accounts over to a money manager. Because honestly, I can’t make any sense of this price action. Do earnings and multiples mean nothing when the FED steps in? Are record unemployment numbers a BUY signal? Does a steepening pandemic curve and the prospect of months of lock down suggest that the water is safe? Can we print ourselves back to the highs despite companies shuttering nationwide? Honestly, I give up.

    • Well don’t give your hard earned lucky break to some money manager. They will screw it up.

    • Anonymous

      Last days price action reminds February, when market made one high after another while virus prepared to break out in Europe and the US.

  3. I’m sure H will let us know, but I’m guessing we’re in the throws of rebalancing flows at the moment in addition to trying to evaluate where Paul Tudor Jones “fed response nuclear bomb with a smiley face” winds up leaving us. Relentless buying. I expect we’ve also shifted from FOMO-top a couple weeks ago, to FOMO-bottom now.

  4. Price discovery is a very serious problem. I never thought the need for “happy talk” would reach the point where the Fed Chair would doing the morning talk shows. When Powell appears on “The View” it might be time to buy a “prepper” handbook.

  5. Could be the system in the process of abrogating it’s own rules is a rough equivalent to burning the house down to get mold and termite issues resolved ….

  6. From my perspective, we never even approached mean valuations – by any metric – and that completely discounts what will happen with forward earnings (or lack there of). By the end of Q2, we could be looking at P/E30 or 40. Am I wrong?

    • Pricing anything is very difficult establishing the NAV of Bond funds is an excellent example of how opaque pricing has become

    • For long periods valuation numbers are more for a thermometer showing the level of demand. High P/Es often reflect large buying pressure and less incentive to sell. Over longer periods, valuations can matter. Not so much in the short term.

  7. Thanks for your responses, folks.

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