Subjecting One Bank’s ‘Peak Globalization’ Thesis To Olson’s Theory

"The 1981-2016 era of unchecked flow of goods, people and capital is coming to an end"...

There are dozens upon dozens of 2020 outlook pieces piled up on my digital desktop. It's the same story every November/December. I create what I suppose is an ingenious system of inbox folders, designed to sort the deluge, but my Gmail skills prove lacking. Overlap is endemic and the clutter of folders ends up being more confusing than if I'd just let everything come to "Primary". I try opening things in separate tabs, but that bogs down my browser's performance. In the end, I download the .pdfs and pile them up on the desktop. Some will be read. Many won't. On Sunday, I finally got around to perusing a thematic investing piece from BofA called "Transforming World: The 2020s". It's fun. And it's entertaining. And it's chock-full of "loud" visuals (the misnomer is purposeful) like this one: (BofA) One of the themes discussed is, not surprisingly, deglobalization. This is taken up and considered rather briefly in a section penned by the bank's Michael Hartnett (along with Jared Woodard and Tommy Ricketts). Hartnett, regular readers will note, conducts the bank's popular Global Fund Manager survey and writes a weekly note called "Flow Show" that includes updates on the "Bull &
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7 comments on “Subjecting One Bank’s ‘Peak Globalization’ Thesis To Olson’s Theory

  1. mfn says:

    “If that’s the case, then reestablishing tariffs at the national level in the 2020s will have the same inevitable results as rolling back jurisdictional integration centuries ago. That is, tariffs and barriers will be reestablished down the line and political authority will devolve from multilateral/multinational institutions (e.g., the WTO) to individual countries, thus opening the door for distributional coalitions to reassert their dominance, at the expense of sustainable growth….”

    Isn’t this exactly what Trump is after, while not bothering to acknowledge that “sustainable growth” will be one of the first casualty of his policies — along with American farmers and meaningful innovation (think the American auto industry of the ’70s and ’80s)?

  2. Pyrognosis says:

    Incredible piece. Thank you.

  3. Anonymous says:

    Great piece, spot on

  4. John3D says:

    Enjoyed. I wonder if you’ve thought about how the multinationals play into this projection…or not. Will countries be able impose their will or will it be the other way around?

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