economy Markets

Asset Prices Say US ‘Less Than A Month’ Away From The End Of Cycle, Model Shows

The end is nigh for the US, according to one bank.

Where are we in the cycle? In many ways, that's the only question that matters for market participants, but thanks in no small part to the post-crisis monetary policy regime, it's been nearly impossible to answer for years. Round after round of central bank asset purchases and the concurrent suppression of risk premia killed price discovery, turning some corners of the financial universe into the Walking Dead in the process. The cycle has been extended and re-extended, as misallocated capital is never purged. Given central banks' express desire to generate inflation, an ironic side effect of their policies has been a disinflationary "zombie" dynamic. Given the above, there have been any number of false dawns for those looking to call dusk on the expansion. It's also possible that the conversation no longer makes much sense - or at least not vis-à-vis developed economies. “My thinking is that this is probably the end of [the] traditional business cycle – no more big and ‘frequent’ amplitudes, but more like undulations around a flat line”, one strategist we spoke to in March suggested. It could be that there are no more recessions in the traditional sense. Just more
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6 comments on “Asset Prices Say US ‘Less Than A Month’ Away From The End Of Cycle, Model Shows

  1. Billy Oxygen says:

    My prediction for the timing market correction may end up being accurate. That is not something I will boast about if I am right, I mean i would except recessions hurt the little guy, and right now the little guy can at least find work. Currently the little guy has some mobility, can choose to gain experience and avoid gaps in work history.

    The market should pick winners and losers however, not reward some of the soft hands currently hooked on; momentum, easy money policy, stimulus, and crooked republicans.

  2. George says:

    Hey H…….. If you reread the first half of your post before the Bank (BNP) part you will likely agree that what you said was exceptionally Brilliant.. Congrats on that one and thanks ….

  3. Who’s the ‘we’, H? Is there more than one of you?

  4. jamaican says:

    it’s pluralis majestatis

  5. jyl says:

    Remember the recessions and bear markets of 2003, 2006, 2013, and 2016?

    Neither do I.

  6. glider says:

    Need to check out their “select financial asset” basket to make sense of graph. Equity market near all time high but assets showing big decline. Maybe big bond component?

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