Goldman thinks we may be underestimating US GDP by a full percentage point, double the measurement error observed in 2005.
That's according to a lengthy piece timestamped Sunday evening from the desk of Spencer Hill.
The note is a dozen pages long, and begins with the bank weighing the relative merits of time traveling back to 1991. "Traveling back in time to witness the collapse of the Soviet Union and the birth of grunge music would be exciting in many ways, but 1991 telecom technology would not be one of them", Goldman writes, illustrating the point by way of a Radio Shack ad from that year which shows that "it would require over 10 devices and $3,000 dollars to replicate even the most basic functions of today’s smartphones".
In light of the Radio Shack observation, the bank thinks it's pretty remarkable that, as you can see in the right pane, "tech-oriented consumption growth... is rising at its slowest pace in the post-war period".
Goldman says "measurement error" in rapidly evolving industries is likely to blame. The bank cites a rather glaring discrepancy between smartphone sales and nominal spending on telephone equipment. "We estimate that even after upw
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