At this point, it’s abundantly clear how the Robert Mueller probe is going to unfold.
I mean really, it’s been crystal from the very beginning. He’s going to start with Manafort, then indict Michael Flynn and his son, then go after Carter Page, and in the final act, indict Jared Kushner.
The sequence there is strategic (“strategery“). Mueller is working from the outside of the Trump orbit and moving inward, the idea being that by the time the risk-reward asymmetry is skewed enough to force Trump’s hand (i.e. by the time the legal risk inherent in allowing the investigation to proceed apace outweighs the political risk associated with moving against Mueller), it will be too late.
We’ve said this for months and we reiterated it over the weekend after NBC reported that Mueller now has enough evidence to charge Flynn and may even attempt to use an indictment against his son to convince him to cooperate. Here’s what we said a couple of days ago:
But getting back to Trump, he’s going to have to figure out a creative way to put the brakes on the Mueller probe if he wants to stay in office. Between the cooperating witness in Papadopoulos and the Manafort/Gates indictment, it’s clear that the special counsel isn’t fucking around here. Mueller will go after Flynn and Page next and then it’s just a matter of time before he gets to Kushner. After that, it’s over for Trump.
Well, we’re not the only ones thinking along these lines. Consider this assessment from Howard Dean (and please, save the Howard Dean jokes because at a certain point, impugning the character of people who are making common sense arguments serves no purpose but to make you seem desperate):
And you know, at the end of the day you can rail against this all you want. Call it a “witch hunt”, call it a Democratic “excuse”, call it a “ruse”, call it “Russophobia”, call it whatever makes you feel better.
But as we saw last Monday, none of that is going to help you when you turn on the TV and see people turning themselves in to the FBI.
“From Russia With Love”…