debt ceiling harvey

Harvey Silver Lining: Odds Of Government Shutdown Fall To ‘Just’ 35%

Well, if you were looking for the silver lining in the catastrophic flooding that accompanied Hurricane Harvey, Goldman is happy to oblige. 

Well, if you were looking for the silver lining in the catastrophic flooding that accompanied Hurricane Harvey, Goldman is happy to oblige. As expected, analysts of all stripes have bent over backwards this week to try and quantify the impact of the storm on whatever sector or asset class they happen to cover although it goes without saying that's an exercise in futility in the near-term. Assessing the fallout from this will take months and probably years depending on what it is you're trying to determine. But when it comes to the effect it will have on the odds of a government shutdown, things are a little easier to measure by virtue of the fact that those odds are to a large extent subjective in the first place. You might recall that over the past couple of weeks, Goldman has pegged the odds of a shutdown at roughly 50%. And that brings us to the silver lining of Hurricane Harvey: the odds might have fallen simply because no one will want to risk being the guy/gal that gets blamed for crippling the government's capacity to provide aid in the aftermath of a horrific natural disaster. "At this point, we peg the probability of a shutdown in early October at 35%, down from our p
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4 comments on “Harvey Silver Lining: Odds Of Government Shutdown Fall To ‘Just’ 35%

  1. Anonymous says:

    Trump will raise Federal flood insurance premiuns based on the event to manufacture cash flow. He will also say climate change makes this necessary.

  2. Peter P says:

    The federal flood insurance program needs to revamped. As an example It might make more sense to make it affordable for those that would really need it, and increase the premiums on coastal properties with good views, thus encouraging development where it shouldn’t happen. Also, no reason to have taxpayers provide subsidised insurance for weekend homes and vacation properties.

  3. RTJR says:

    Okay, so now what happens if Trump ends up demanding that the wall be included into the debt ceiling allotments? Congress has already made it clear they won’t pass that. But now it would seem they would have to, otherwise look like no-Harvey-relief chumps.. Assuming Trump does include the wall. Which he might, realizing all of this now, since after all, it’s Trump. What a donnybrook this could become!

    • Jetfire says:

      Trump may well include far more than the wall just because he is pretty certain congress will have no choice. We could see his entire to do list wrapped up in it and just straight up dare congress to do anything about it.

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