Well, bank stocks underperformed on Wednesday and that shouldn’t come as a surprise.
The financials are another “Trump trade” and while they’re still clinging to some of their post-election outperformance relative to the broad market, days like today don’t help.
Here’s a look a the relative performance of the KBW Bank index since the election:
Again, it was “Trump bump” and then sideways, as the curve flattened and the administration’s agenda hit roadblock after roadblock.
Now have a look at what we saw on Wednesday as things went from bad to worse for Trump and as the Fed minutes showed the committee is concerned about the outlook for inflation and fiscal policy:
Meanwhile, following reports that Gary Cohn was extremely upset after Tuesday’s Trump meltdown, Wall Street is wondering how he’ll ultimately react.
The Street “is focused intently on how U.S. National Economic Council Director Gary Cohn will react to President Donald Trump’s recent statements after the events in Charlottesville, because of tax reform in the near-term and the Fed chairmanship in the medium-term,” Compass Point’s Isaac Boltansky wrote in an e-mail to Bloomberg earlier today.
And don’t forget this from Jamie Dimon:
There you go.
Finally, when you think about what this means going forward, consider the following out from KBW’s Brian Gardner this afternoon:
- The impact to President Donald Trump’s economic agenda, particularly tax reform, from controversy surrounding comments about protests in Charlottesville can’t be ignored
- Trump’s failure to clearly and unambiguously condemn racist and bigoted behavior has further divided him from key members of his own party, created chaos among his staff, and alienated support within the business community; this week’s events are complicating future collaboration
- Financial deregulation narrative may be intact as KBW had expected agenda would be accomplished at regulatory level (not via legislation); some regulatory actions may be imperiled if key regulators resign or if the administration fails to find personnel to run agencies
- Items requiring congressional action such as blocking CFPB’s arbitration rule or raising Dodd-Frank thresholds now face higher hurdles
- Tax reform was always going to be “heavy lift”; may be even harder now